Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 3:30 PM ET
Bobby Dodd Stadium · 60° · wind 19 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Duke–Georgia Tech) | 27–23 | 33–13 | – |
| Spread | Duke −3.9 | Duke −19.7 | Duke −6.5 |
| Total | 50.2 | 46.2 | 44.5 |
| Georgia Tech win chance | 40% | – | – |
Line moved from Duke −7 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Georgia Tech +6.5 ★ Over 44.5
Spread: 2.6 pts better than Vegas for Georgia Tech (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 5.7 pts above Vegas (50% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ Duke −6.5 ☆ Over 44.5
Spread: 13.2 pts better than Vegas for Duke. Total: 1.7 pts above Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Duke by 3.926%
Duke by 14+
33%
Duke by 1–13
27%
Georgia Tech by 1–13
13%
Georgia Tech by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Duke | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Georgia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.003 #63 | Offense EPA / play | +0.043 #44 |
| −0.013 #45 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.117 #102 |
| −2.1% #80 | Offense success rate | +3.1% #29 |
| +1.5% #64 | Defense success rate allowed | +3.9% #88 |
| +0.009 #58 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.041 #42 |
| −0.015 #68 | Passing EPA / play | +0.041 #53 |
| −0.114 #18 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.050 #70 |
| +0.025 #66 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.201 #119 |
| +2.0 #51 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −1.1 #70 |
| −2.9 #34 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +2.7 #77 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.7% #103 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +0.2% #56 |
| −3.4% #23 | Passing-down success allowed | +7.6% #125 |
| +0.19 #57 | Points per drive | −0.18 #75 |
| +0.29 #52 | Points per drive allowed | +0.52 #66 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.08 #64 | Line yards per rush | +0.22 #20 |
| +0.07 #65 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.11 #68 |
| +3.4% #102 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.2% #59 |
| −2.3% #91 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.6% #80 |
| −2.4% #23 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.3% #59 |
| +0.6% #45 | Havoc created | −1.3% #83 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.052 #45 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.126 #116 |
| +0.028 #58 | Passing explosiveness | +0.029 #57 |
| +0.03 #51 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.01 #56 |
| −0.119 #36 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.266 #136 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% #36 | Run rate | 50% #88 |
| −17.0 #119 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −7.1 #54 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Duke | Season to date | Georgia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| 4-0 | Record | 1-3 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 3-0 | Home | 1-2 |
| 1-0 | Away | 0-1 |
| 4-0 | Against the spread | 0-4 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 36.2 / 11.0 | Points for / against | 27.0 / 26.0 |
| +25.2 | Avg margin | +1.0 |
| +11.1 | Avg vs. the spread | -7.9 |
| 60.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.8 |
Duke: last 4 games
| W62-7 | |
| W35-7 | |
| W31-27 | |
| W17-3 |
