Final
Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM ET
Wallace Wade Stadium · 77° · wind 10 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (William & Mary–Duke) | 4–56 | – | 7–62 |
| Spread | Duke −51.9 | Duke −43.5 | Duke −55 |
| Total | 59.9 | 61.5 | 69 |
| Duke win chance | 100% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Duke −43.5 Won★ Under 61.5 Lost
Spread: 8.4 pts better than Vegas for Duke (sides with a gap this size have won 49% in the backtest). Total: 1.6 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Duke by 51.90%
William & Mary by 14+
0%
William & Mary by 1–13
1%
Duke by 1–13
99%
Duke by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| William & Mary | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.328 | Offense EPA / play | +0.020 #54 |
| +0.376 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.074 #21 |
| −14.6% | Offense success rate | −0.8% #77 |
| +17.2% | Defense success rate allowed | −0.8% #53 |
| −0.207 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.089 #40 |
| −0.330 | Passing EPA / play | −0.030 #72 |
| +0.433 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.117 #13 |
| +0.378 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.092 #21 |
| −14.8 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +0.8 #54 |
| +22.8 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −6.1 #15 |
| Situational | ||
| −12.4% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.8% #72 |
| +14.8% | Passing-down success allowed | −6.3% #8 |
| −2.28 | Points per drive | −0.18 #74 |
| +2.98 | Points per drive allowed | −0.63 #23 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.87 | Line yards per rush | +0.22 #46 |
| +1.24 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.05 #73 |
| +7.3% | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.0% #98 |
| −10.0% | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.1% #100 |
| +4.3% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.6% #27 |
| −3.4% | Havoc created | +1.1% #35 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.022 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.082 #36 |
| +0.363 | Passing explosiveness | +0.125 #65 |
| +0.08 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.12 #36 |
| +0.081 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.122 #24 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 57% | Run rate | 62% #17 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −3.8 #37 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| William & Mary | Season to date | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 4-0 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-0 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 4-0 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 7.0 / 62.0 | Points for / against | 36.2 / 11.0 |
| -55.0 | Avg margin | +25.2 |
| -11.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +11.1 |
| 50.7 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.2 |
William & Mary: last games
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