Final
Sat, Sep 26, 10:30 PM ET
Stanford Stadium · 61° · wind 4 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Georgia Tech–Stanford) | 30–25 | – | 27–34 |
| Spread | Georgia Tech −5.0 | Georgia Tech −3 | Stanford −7 |
| Total | 55.2 | 48.5 | 61 |
| Stanford win chance | 38% | – | – |
Line moved from Georgia Tech −4.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Georgia Tech −3 Lost★ Over 48.5 Won
Spread: 2.0 pts better than Vegas for Georgia Tech (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 6.7 pts above Vegas (54% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Georgia Tech by 5.029%
Georgia Tech by 14+
33%
Georgia Tech by 1–13
26%
Stanford by 1–13
12%
Stanford by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Georgia Tech | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Stanford |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.012 #56 | Offense EPA / play | +0.014 #55 |
| +0.059 #84 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.153 #125 |
| +4.0% #29 | Offense success rate | −2.2% #90 |
| +2.4% #88 | Defense success rate allowed | +4.1% #106 |
| +0.049 #61 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.020 #78 |
| +0.001 #54 | Passing EPA / play | +0.011 #47 |
| +0.092 #105 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.051 #91 |
| +0.040 #71 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.224 #127 |
| −2.7 #79 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −6.2 #103 |
| −0.5 #61 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +5.4 #103 |
| Situational | ||
| −1.8% #73 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −6.9% #115 |
| +3.1% #98 | Passing-down success allowed | +4.9% #118 |
| −0.40 #84 | Points per drive | −0.79 #106 |
| −0.17 #47 | Points per drive allowed | +0.56 #104 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.29 #36 | Line yards per rush | −0.08 #105 |
| +0.16 #96 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.10 #84 |
| −1.8% #72 | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.9% #112 |
| −3.3% #116 | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.5% #119 |
| −0.8% #85 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.4% #48 |
| −0.3% #70 | Havoc created | −1.8% #98 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.164 #131 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.068 #46 |
| +0.029 #99 | Passing explosiveness | +0.056 #90 |
| −0.38 #106 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.10 #37 |
| +0.111 #110 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.020 #74 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% #77 | Run rate | 48% #128 |
| −4.8 #39 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +4.6 #6 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Georgia Tech | Season to date | Stanford |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 1-3 |
| 1-2 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 0-4 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 27.0 / 26.0 | Points for / against | 17.4 / 38.2 |
| +1.0 | Avg margin | -20.8 |
| -7.9 | Avg vs. the spread | -11.4 |
| 60.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 52.6 |
