Final
Sat, Sep 26, 6:00 PM ET
Scott Stadium · 67° · wind 13 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Delaware–Virginia) | 18–33 | – | 3–42 |
| Spread | Virginia −15.5 | Virginia −19.5 | Virginia −39 |
| Total | 50.8 | 52.5 | 45 |
| Virginia win chance | 83% | – | – |
Line moved from Virginia −20.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Delaware +19.5 Lost★ Under 52.5 Won
Spread: 4.0 pts better than Vegas for Delaware (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 1.7 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Virginia by 15.53%
Delaware by 14+
13%
Delaware by 1–13
30%
Virginia by 1–13
54%
Virginia by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Delaware | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.046 #85 | Offense EPA / play | +0.054 #41 |
| +0.045 #80 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.037 #40 |
| −2.0% #88 | Offense success rate | +3.0% #37 |
| +1.8% #81 | Defense success rate allowed | −1.3% #46 |
| −0.035 #102 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.191 #11 |
| −0.067 #86 | Passing EPA / play | +0.071 #35 |
| −0.033 #41 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.011 #52 |
| +0.171 #110 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.006 #53 |
| −5.0 #93 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +2.6 #37 |
| +4.3 #95 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −5.0 #21 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.6% #97 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −5.3% #106 |
| +1.5% #85 | Passing-down success allowed | −4.6% #21 |
| −0.67 #98 | Points per drive | +0.33 #39 |
| +0.55 #102 | Points per drive allowed | −0.77 #16 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.40 #130 | Line yards per rush | +0.59 #5 |
| −0.07 #54 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.21 #106 |
| +2.9% #124 | Runs stuffed at the line | −7.8% #2 |
| +0.1% #70 | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.8% #112 |
| +3.8% #138 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −4.8% #11 |
| +1.0% #38 | Havoc created | +1.0% #36 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.058 #100 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.075 #40 |
| +0.347 #13 | Passing explosiveness | +0.032 #97 |
| −0.65 #131 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.21 #78 |
| +0.049 #87 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.109 #109 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 48% #129 | Run rate | 62% #22 |
| −14.7 #103 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −9.2 #56 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Delaware | Season to date | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 2-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 21.4 / 25.6 | Points for / against | 33.8 / 18.0 |
| -4.2 | Avg margin | +15.8 |
| -2.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -0.8 |
| 52.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.6 |
Delaware: last 3 games
| W22-14 | |
| L26-35 | |
| W42-7 |
Virginia: last 3 games
| L27-38 | |
| W59-3 | |
| W34-8 |
