Final
Sat, Sep 26, 3:00 PM ET
Doak Campbell Stadium · 83° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (CARK–Florida State) | 11–54 | – | 7–34 |
| Spread | Florida State −43.4 | Florida State −45.5 | Florida State −27 |
| Total | 65.2 | 62.5 | 41 |
| Florida State win chance | 100% | – | – |
Line moved from Florida State −42.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ CARK +45.5 Won★ Over 62.5 Lost
Spread: 2.1 pts better than Vegas for Central Arkansas (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.7 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Florida State by 43.40%
Central Arkansas by 14+
0%
Central Arkansas by 1–13
3%
Florida State by 1–13
96%
Florida State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| CARK | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Florida State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.275 | Offense EPA / play | +0.124 #17 |
| +0.308 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.116 #98 |
| −8.2% | Offense success rate | +2.3% #38 |
| +13.1% | Defense success rate allowed | +2.0% #67 |
| −0.133 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.172 #8 |
| −0.429 | Passing EPA / play | +0.097 #34 |
| +0.272 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.051 #72 |
| +0.311 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.123 #96 |
| −16.2 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +5.0 #26 |
| +21.1 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −0.2 #55 |
| Situational | ||
| −3.5% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +5.7% #15 |
| +7.2% | Passing-down success allowed | +2.5% #82 |
| −2.15 | Points per drive | +0.50 #32 |
| +3.10 | Points per drive allowed | +0.06 #34 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.49 | Line yards per rush | +0.32 #12 |
| +0.72 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.22 #85 |
| +4.3% | Runs stuffed at the line | −4.0% #7 |
| −8.1% | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.5% #92 |
| +4.3% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.8% #89 |
| −4.2% | Havoc created | −0.6% #70 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.094 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.176 #9 |
| −0.115 | Passing explosiveness | +0.413 #2 |
| +0.13 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.01 #53 |
| −0.071 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.053 #102 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 54% | Run rate | 58% #16 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +5.9 #4 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| CARK | Season to date | Florida State |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-1 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 2-2-1 |
| 0-1 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 7.0 / 34.0 | Points for / against | 33.2 / 21.6 |
| -27.0 | Avg margin | +11.6 |
| +18.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +1.0 |
| 53.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.0 |
Central Arkansas: last games
No games yet.
Florida State: last 3 games
| L36-50 | |
| L24-27 | |
| W34-17 |
