Final
Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC) · 87° · wind 3 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (North Carolina–Clemson) | 19–23 | – | 20–28 |
| Spread | Clemson −3.5 | Clemson −3 | Clemson −8 |
| Total | 42.0 | 44.5 | 48 |
| Clemson win chance | 59% | – | – |
Line moved from Clemson −9.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Clemson −3 Won★ Under 44.5 Lost
Spread: 0.5 pts better than Vegas for Clemson (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.5 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Clemson by 3.513%
North Carolina by 14+
28%
North Carolina by 1–13
34%
Clemson by 1–13
25%
Clemson by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| North Carolina | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Clemson |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.014 #69 | Offense EPA / play | −0.094 #103 |
| −0.056 #30 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.021 #43 |
| +3.8% #28 | Offense success rate | −3.5% #107 |
| −0.2% #59 | Defense success rate allowed | −3.9% #16 |
| +0.011 #75 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.065 #114 |
| −0.032 #66 | Passing EPA / play | −0.074 #85 |
| −0.004 #54 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.028 #70 |
| −0.112 #16 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.098 #21 |
| −7.5 #113 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −1.0 #62 |
| −7.3 #15 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −2.7 #39 |
| Situational | ||
| +0.8% #48 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −2.4% #80 |
| −3.6% #32 | Passing-down success allowed | +3.0% #100 |
| −0.61 #95 | Points per drive | −0.29 #75 |
| −0.30 #39 | Points per drive allowed | −0.16 #51 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.50 #9 | Line yards per rush | −0.14 #112 |
| +0.02 #64 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.05 #72 |
| −4.2% #36 | Runs stuffed at the line | +5.9% #137 |
| −2.4% #105 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.5% #93 |
| −1.5% #68 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.6% #117 |
| −1.8% #97 | Havoc created | +1.0% #36 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.161 #128 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.148 #124 |
| −0.017 #110 | Passing explosiveness | −0.014 #109 |
| −0.40 #107 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.17 #73 |
| −0.165 #14 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.125 #114 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% #98 | Run rate | 48% #128 |
| −12.3 #79 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +5.6 #9 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| North Carolina | Season to date | Clemson |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 1-1 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 2-2 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 24.0 / 19.5 | Points for / against | 19.4 / 25.8 |
| +4.5 | Avg margin | -6.4 |
| +3.2 | Avg vs. the spread | -6.8 |
| 54.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.4 |
North Carolina: last 2 games
| W35-3 | |
| W15-10 |
Clemson: last 2 games
| W22-7 | |
| L10-51 |
