Final
Sat, Sep 12, 4:00 PM ET
Gerald J. Ford Stadium · 99° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UC Davis–SMU) | 14–48 | – | 10–56 |
| Spread | SMU −34.5 | SMU −32.5 | SMU −46 |
| Total | 62.1 | 59.5 | 66 |
| SMU win chance | 98% | – | – |
Line moved from SMU −24.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ SMU −32.5 Won★ Over 59.5 Won
Spread: 2.0 pts better than Vegas for SMU (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.6 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around SMU by 34.50%
UC Davis by 14+
2%
UC Davis by 1–13
9%
SMU by 1–13
89%
SMU by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| UC Davis | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.112 | Offense EPA / play | +0.118 #15 |
| +0.154 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.063 #23 |
| −0.2% | Offense success rate | +6.2% #11 |
| +7.6% | Defense success rate allowed | −3.0% #22 |
| −0.032 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.088 #38 |
| +0.005 | Passing EPA / play | +0.149 #14 |
| +0.164 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.088 #18 |
| +0.092 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.031 #36 |
| −3.6 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +4.2 #28 |
| +8.9 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −4.6 #24 |
| Situational | ||
| −9.7% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.3% #24 |
| +5.3% | Passing-down success allowed | −1.7% #40 |
| −1.53 | Points per drive | +0.17 #44 |
| +1.12 | Points per drive allowed | −0.77 #17 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.03 | Line yards per rush | +0.20 #50 |
| +0.11 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.06 #52 |
| −0.0% | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.9% #65 |
| +1.0% | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.5% #57 |
| −2.6% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.4% #68 |
| −0.7% | Havoc created | +2.2% #15 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.061 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.009 #81 |
| +0.163 | Passing explosiveness | +0.126 #59 |
| −0.10 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.13 #30 |
| −0.061 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.080 #99 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 51% | Run rate | 52% #113 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +2.4 #33 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| UC Davis | Season to date | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 1-3-1 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 10.0 / 56.0 | Points for / against | 34.6 / 23.0 |
| -46.0 | Avg margin | +11.6 |
| -13.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -5.3 |
| 50.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.8 |
UC Davis: last games
No games yet.
SMU: last 1 games
| W27-24 |
