Final
Fri, Sep 11, 7:00 PM ET
Scott Stadium · 74° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Norfolk State–Virginia) | 4–51 | – | 3–59 |
| Spread | Virginia −46.9 | Virginia −47.5 | Virginia −56 |
| Total | 55.7 | 56.5 | 62 |
| Virginia win chance | 100% | – | – |
Line moved from Virginia −44.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Norfolk State +47.5 Lost★ Under 56.5 Lost
Spread: 0.6 pts better than Vegas for Norfolk State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.8 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Virginia by 46.90%
Norfolk State by 14+
0%
Norfolk State by 1–13
2%
Virginia by 1–13
98%
Virginia by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Norfolk State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.266 | Offense EPA / play | +0.051 #37 |
| +0.209 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.094 #12 |
| −11.2% | Offense success rate | +3.1% #33 |
| +8.4% | Defense success rate allowed | −3.3% #20 |
| −0.114 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.091 #36 |
| −0.317 | Passing EPA / play | +0.154 #13 |
| +0.106 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.076 #21 |
| +0.200 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.040 #32 |
| −14.3 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +1.7 #43 |
| +14.9 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −6.7 #15 |
| Situational | ||
| −7.1% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.9% #75 |
| +12.7% | Passing-down success allowed | −4.4% #16 |
| −1.45 | Points per drive | +0.01 #50 |
| +1.83 | Points per drive allowed | −0.73 #18 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.47 | Line yards per rush | +0.30 #31 |
| +0.34 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.01 #66 |
| +4.5% | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.9% #37 |
| −0.9% | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.0% #94 |
| +1.6% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −4.2% #9 |
| −2.0% | Havoc created | +2.5% #11 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.223 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.013 #84 |
| +0.047 | Passing explosiveness | +0.196 #31 |
| −0.00 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.22 #78 |
| +0.147 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.075 #38 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 58% | Run rate | 62% #13 |
| −7.5 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +0.3 #42 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Norfolk State | Season to date | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-1 |
| 1-1 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-1 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 6.5 / 45.0 | Points for / against | 33.8 / 18.0 |
| -38.5 | Avg margin | +15.8 |
| +6.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -0.8 |
| 62.3 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.6 |
Norfolk State: last 1 games
| L10-31 |
Virginia: last 1 games
| W34-8 |
