Final
Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL) · 86° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Duke–Illinois) | 24–30 | – | 31–27 |
| Spread | Illinois −6.5 | Illinois −6 | Duke −4 |
| Total | 53.6 | 51.5 | 58 |
| Illinois win chance | 66% | – | – |
Line moved from Illinois −8.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Illinois −6 Lost★ Over 51.5 Won
Spread: 0.5 pts better than Vegas for Illinois (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.1 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Illinois by 6.510%
Duke by 14+
24%
Duke by 1–13
34%
Illinois by 1–13
32%
Illinois by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Duke | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.056 #94 | Offense EPA / play | +0.082 #29 |
| −0.015 #51 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.045 #74 |
| −2.7% #101 | Offense success rate | +5.0% #16 |
| −1.4% #40 | Defense success rate allowed | +1.2% #74 |
| +0.023 #75 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.035 #63 |
| −0.158 #113 | Passing EPA / play | +0.164 #11 |
| −0.048 #33 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.075 #103 |
| −0.008 #51 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.018 #44 |
| −0.6 #57 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +3.1 #35 |
| −3.3 #30 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −1.4 #43 |
| Situational | ||
| −3.1% #94 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +8.1% #7 |
| −6.8% #7 | Passing-down success allowed | +3.1% #102 |
| −0.38 #81 | Points per drive | +0.62 #32 |
| −0.45 #32 | Points per drive allowed | +0.01 #54 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.11 #68 | Line yards per rush | +0.10 #72 |
| −0.05 #54 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.17 #106 |
| −1.0% #82 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.5% #94 |
| +0.3% #60 | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.8% #118 |
| −3.3% #25 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.9% #14 |
| +2.7% #7 | Havoc created | −1.1% #88 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.050 #49 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.039 #55 |
| +0.053 #94 | Passing explosiveness | +0.095 #74 |
| −0.05 #47 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.04 #37 |
| −0.048 #50 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.006 #63 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 57% #48 | Run rate | 59% #38 |
| −3.8 #50 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −10.5 #71 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Duke | Season to date | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| 4-0 | Record | 2-3 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 3-0 | Home | 2-2 |
| 1-0 | Away | 0-1 |
| 4-0 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 36.2 / 11.0 | Points for / against | 30.6 / 26.0 |
| +25.2 | Avg margin | +4.6 |
| +11.1 | Avg vs. the spread | -5.4 |
| 60.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.6 |
