Final
Mon, Sep 7, 7:30 PM ET
Doak Campbell Stadium · 80° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (SMU–Florida State) | 25–28 | – | 27–24 |
| Spread | Florida State −3.8 | SMU −3 | SMU −3 |
| Total | 53.0 | 52.5 | 51 |
| Florida State win chance | 59% | – | – |
Line moved from SMU −2.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Florida State +3 Push★ Over 52.5 Lost
Spread: 6.8 pts better than Vegas for Florida State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.5 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Florida State by 3.813%
SMU by 14+
27%
SMU by 1–13
33%
Florida State by 1–13
26%
Florida State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| SMU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Florida State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.050 #32 | Offense EPA / play | +0.102 #15 |
| −0.036 #26 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.005 #37 |
| +0.9% #42 | Offense success rate | +4.5% #15 |
| +0.0% #39 | Defense success rate allowed | −0.1% #36 |
| +0.008 #51 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.093 #14 |
| +0.075 #26 | Passing EPA / play | +0.083 #23 |
| −0.057 #18 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.001 #39 |
| −0.003 #40 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.035 #26 |
| +3.0 #37 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +4.6 #20 |
| −2.2 #33 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −2.7 #31 |
| Situational | ||
| +0.9% #40 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +4.4% #12 |
| +1.5% #63 | Passing-down success allowed | −0.2% #38 |
| +0.25 #44 | Points per drive | +1.12 #14 |
| +0.10 #34 | Points per drive allowed | +0.18 #39 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.07 #53 | Line yards per rush | +0.24 #6 |
| +0.00 #45 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.09 #66 |
| +1.2% #72 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.9% #5 |
| +1.0% #29 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.2% #77 |
| +0.6% #90 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.8% #95 |
| +1.7% #20 | Havoc created | +1.3% #24 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.001 #39 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.013 #22 |
| +0.012 #62 | Passing explosiveness | +0.095 #6 |
| +0.01 #38 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.08 #28 |
| −0.041 #46 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.074 #13 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 47% #124 | Run rate | 57% #16 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| SMU | Season to date | Florida State |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 2-1 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 3-0 | Home | 3-1 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-1 |
| 1-3-1 | Against the spread | 2-2-1 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 34.6 / 23.0 | Points for / against | 33.2 / 21.6 |
| +11.6 | Avg margin | +11.6 |
| -5.3 | Avg vs. the spread | +1.0 |
| 63.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.0 |
SMU: last games
No games yet.
Florida State: last 1 games
| W34-17 |
