Final
Sat, Aug 29, 3:30 PM ET
Scott Stadium · 81° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (NC State–Virginia) | 27–27 | – | 8–34 |
| Spread | NC State −0.3 | Virginia −4 | Virginia −26 |
| Total | 54.0 | 50.5 | 42 |
| Virginia win chance | 49% | – | – |
Line moved from Virginia −3.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ NC State +4 Lost★ Over 50.5 Lost
Spread: 4.3 pts better than Vegas for NC State (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 3.5 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around NC State by 0.320%
NC State by 14+
31%
NC State by 1–13
31%
Virginia by 1–13
19%
Virginia by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| NC State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.079 #19 | Offense EPA / play | +0.010 #51 |
| +0.007 #51 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.024 #35 |
| +3.0% #28 | Offense success rate | +0.3% #60 |
| −2.8% #21 | Defense success rate allowed | −2.2% #27 |
| +0.093 #25 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.054 #43 |
| +0.068 #20 | Passing EPA / play | −0.008 #57 |
| −0.013 #38 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.008 #41 |
| −0.005 #38 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.002 #42 |
| +3.6 #26 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +0.8 #51 |
| −1.5 #45 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −2.9 #34 |
| Situational | ||
| +1.4% #27 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −0.6% #52 |
| −1.8% #28 | Passing-down success allowed | −2.0% #25 |
| +0.47 #29 | Points per drive | +0.02 #53 |
| −0.20 #40 | Points per drive allowed | −0.27 #32 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.23 #29 | Line yards per rush | +0.16 #48 |
| −0.17 #24 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.11 #37 |
| −2.1% #53 | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.1% #25 |
| +1.7% #31 | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.4% #62 |
| −1.9% #50 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.8% #52 |
| +0.3% #48 | Havoc created | +0.9% #23 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.031 #24 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.026 #37 |
| +0.124 #50 | Passing explosiveness | +0.107 #67 |
| +0.20 #12 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.12 #64 |
| +0.023 #100 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.001 #54 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% #94 | Run rate | 55% #74 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| NC State | Season to date | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 3-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-1 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 36.8 / 25.6 | Points for / against | 33.8 / 18.0 |
| +11.2 | Avg margin | +15.8 |
| +4.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -0.8 |
| 62.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.6 |
NC State: last games
No games yet.
Virginia: last games
No games yet.