Final
Sat, Sep 26, 7:00 PM ET
Milan Puskar Stadium · 63° · wind 10 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Oklahoma State–West Virginia) | 24–30 | – | 41–24 |
| Spread | West Virginia −6.4 | West Virginia −1.5 | Oklahoma State −17 |
| Total | 54.5 | 60.5 | 65 |
| West Virginia win chance | 66% | – | – |
Line moved from Oklahoma State −2.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ West Virginia −1.5 Lost★ Under 60.5 Lost
Spread: 4.9 pts better than Vegas for West Virginia (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 6.0 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around West Virginia by 6.410%
Oklahoma State by 14+
24%
Oklahoma State by 1–13
34%
West Virginia by 1–13
32%
West Virginia by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Oklahoma State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | West Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.090 #104 | Offense EPA / play | +0.069 #31 |
| +0.038 #66 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.057 #76 |
| −0.2% #62 | Offense success rate | −1.2% #67 |
| −0.7% #40 | Defense success rate allowed | +2.7% #76 |
| −0.113 #111 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.006 #57 |
| −0.042 #84 | Passing EPA / play | +0.292 #4 |
| −0.042 #31 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.076 #22 |
| +0.083 #86 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.076 #79 |
| +0.0 #63 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +3.7 #34 |
| +1.3 #68 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +2.4 #76 |
| Situational | ||
| +0.6% #57 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +1.8% #46 |
| −3.2% #24 | Passing-down success allowed | +1.6% #73 |
| +0.26 #43 | Points per drive | +0.28 #42 |
| +0.27 #50 | Points per drive allowed | +0.57 #74 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.22 #87 | Line yards per rush | −0.26 #98 |
| +0.01 #51 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.12 #34 |
| +2.6% #99 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.1% #93 |
| +2.3% #34 | Opponent runs stuffed | +2.8% #29 |
| −2.0% #30 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.0% #13 |
| −0.5% #68 | Havoc created | +1.2% #37 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.088 #106 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.055 #44 |
| −0.108 #111 | Passing explosiveness | +0.607 #1 |
| +0.13 #35 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.20 #28 |
| +0.095 #116 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.199 #14 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 48% #106 | Run rate | 69% #5 |
| −11.5 #71 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −11.9 #73 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Oklahoma State | Season to date | West Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 2-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-1 |
| 3-1 | Against the spread | 2-2-1 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 5-0 |
| 37.2 / 19.8 | Points for / against | 37.4 / 28.8 |
| +17.5 | Avg margin | +8.6 |
| +6.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.5 |
| 70.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 65.2 |
Oklahoma State: last 3 games
| W59-0 | |
| W39-31 | |
| L10-24 |
West Virginia: last 3 games
| W38-27 | |
| W52-7 | |
| W31-24 |
