Final
Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM ET
Boone Pickens Stadium · 90° · wind 12 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Murray State–Oklahoma State) | 6–51 | – | 0–59 |
| Spread | Oklahoma State −44.5 | Oklahoma State −56.5 | Oklahoma State −59 |
| Total | 57.5 | 70.5 | 59 |
| Oklahoma State win chance | 100% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Murray State +56.5 Lost★ Under 70.5 Won
Spread: 12.0 pts better than Vegas for Murray State (sides with a gap this size have won 46% in the backtest). Total: 13.0 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Oklahoma State by 44.50%
Murray State by 14+
0%
Murray State by 1–13
3%
Oklahoma State by 1–13
97%
Oklahoma State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Murray State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Oklahoma State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.333 | Offense EPA / play | −0.122 #115 |
| +0.397 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.037 #65 |
| −13.8% | Offense success rate | −1.4% #69 |
| +15.3% | Defense success rate allowed | −0.4% #43 |
| −0.301 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.049 #84 |
| −0.361 | Passing EPA / play | −0.177 #119 |
| +0.404 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.043 #33 |
| +0.257 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.082 #83 |
| −23.5 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.8 #79 |
| +19.9 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +2.7 #72 |
| Situational | ||
| −12.7% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −0.8% #65 |
| +8.7% | Passing-down success allowed | −4.2% #16 |
| −3.25 | Points per drive | −0.56 #90 |
| +2.92 | Points per drive allowed | +0.34 #59 |
| Trenches | ||
| −1.02 | Line yards per rush | −0.08 #64 |
| +1.18 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.06 #55 |
| +8.8% | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.0% #85 |
| −6.8% | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.0% #69 |
| +4.1% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.2% #23 |
| −5.0% | Havoc created | −1.1% #78 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.019 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.041 #86 |
| −0.102 | Passing explosiveness | −0.163 #123 |
| −0.59 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.18 #30 |
| +0.056 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.170 #132 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 47% | Run rate | 49% #100 |
| −18.8 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +1.7 #15 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Murray State | Season to date | Oklahoma State |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 3-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-1 |
| 0-2 | Against the spread | 3-1 |
| 0-2 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 7.0 / 48.5 | Points for / against | 37.2 / 19.8 |
| -41.5 | Avg margin | +17.5 |
| -2.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +6.5 |
| 49.7 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 70.8 |
Murray State: last 1 games
| L14-38 |
