Final
Sat, Sep 19, 7:30 PM ET
Bank of America Stadium · 81° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (West Virginia–Virginia) | 19–34 | – | 38–27 |
| Spread | Virginia −15.2 | Virginia −10.5 | West Virginia −11 |
| Total | 53.0 | 51.5 | 65 |
| Virginia win chance | 83% | – | – |
Line moved from Virginia −8.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Virginia −10.5 Lost★ Over 51.5 Won
Spread: 4.7 pts better than Vegas for Virginia (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 1.5 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Virginia by 15.23%
West Virginia by 14+
14%
West Virginia by 1–13
30%
Virginia by 1–13
53%
Virginia by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| West Virginia | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.003 #64 | Offense EPA / play | +0.086 #25 |
| +0.104 #92 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.093 #10 |
| −1.4% #70 | Offense success rate | +5.9% #14 |
| +6.0% #113 | Defense success rate allowed | −0.7% #39 |
| −0.056 #85 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.186 #7 |
| +0.207 #11 | Passing EPA / play | +0.189 #15 |
| −0.068 #26 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.054 #30 |
| +0.177 #113 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.082 #24 |
| −0.8 #61 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +5.9 #26 |
| +4.1 #88 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −7.8 #12 |
| Situational | ||
| −1.0% #69 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −0.8% #64 |
| +6.5% #123 | Passing-down success allowed | −6.4% #8 |
| −0.09 #57 | Points per drive | +0.71 #30 |
| +1.04 #99 | Points per drive allowed | −0.75 #8 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.30 #101 | Line yards per rush | +0.46 #4 |
| −0.10 #43 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.18 #80 |
| +1.2% #74 | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.8% #12 |
| +4.2% #14 | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.5% #103 |
| −1.6% #30 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.7% #7 |
| +1.6% #33 | Havoc created | +2.6% #18 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.054 #94 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.041 #44 |
| +0.287 #8 | Passing explosiveness | +0.006 #71 |
| +0.03 #47 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.08 #59 |
| −0.122 #29 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.211 #12 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 65% #5 | Run rate | 58% #15 |
| −24.6 #122 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −11.9 #68 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| West Virginia | Season to date | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 2-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-1 |
| 2-2-1 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 5-0 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 37.4 / 28.8 | Points for / against | 33.8 / 18.0 |
| +8.6 | Avg margin | +15.8 |
| -1.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -0.8 |
| 65.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.6 |
West Virginia: last 2 games
| W52-7 | |
| W31-24 |
Virginia: last 2 games
| W59-3 | |
| W34-8 |
