Final
Sat, Sep 19, 8:00 PM ET
Amon G. Carter Stadium · 92° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Arkansas State–TCU) | 22–36 | – | 7–31 |
| Spread | TCU −13.3 | TCU −18.5 | TCU −24 |
| Total | 57.7 | 56.5 | 38 |
| TCU win chance | 79% | – | – |
Line moved from TCU −20.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Arkansas State +18.5 Lost★ Over 56.5 Lost
Spread: 5.2 pts better than Vegas for Arkansas State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.2 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around TCU by 13.35%
Arkansas State by 14+
16%
Arkansas State by 1–13
31%
TCU by 1–13
48%
TCU by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Arkansas State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.085 #98 | Offense EPA / play | +0.032 #44 |
| +0.172 #127 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.002 #44 |
| +0.0% #61 | Offense success rate | +0.3% #55 |
| +6.9% #125 | Defense success rate allowed | +0.3% #50 |
| −0.066 #89 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.000 #56 |
| −0.047 #79 | Passing EPA / play | +0.040 #44 |
| +0.047 #68 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.141 #10 |
| +0.299 #135 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.073 #80 |
| −2.3 #73 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +3.0 #39 |
| +7.8 #114 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −2.0 #37 |
| Situational | ||
| −0.5% #60 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −5.8% #112 |
| +8.6% #133 | Passing-down success allowed | +3.5% #87 |
| +0.21 #45 | Points per drive | −0.21 #64 |
| +1.13 #105 | Points per drive allowed | +0.17 #43 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.26 #95 | Line yards per rush | −0.18 #83 |
| +0.59 #133 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.03 #52 |
| +1.8% #81 | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.0% #68 |
| −8.0% #136 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.3% #76 |
| +1.3% #101 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.8% #48 |
| −2.5% #107 | Havoc created | +1.3% #38 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.120 #114 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.019 #59 |
| −0.122 #112 | Passing explosiveness | +0.076 #44 |
| −0.67 #135 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.22 #27 |
| +0.153 #129 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.040 #62 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 49% #105 | Run rate | 48% #108 |
| −21.9 #113 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −18.5 #98 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Arkansas State | Season to date | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 2-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-3 | Away | 0-1 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 24.0 / 23.4 | Points for / against | 25.4 / 13.4 |
| +0.6 | Avg margin | +12.0 |
| -0.3 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.7 |
| 54.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.4 |
Arkansas State: last 2 games
| W52-7 | |
| L24-42 |
TCU: last 2 games
| W63-7 | |
| L10-15 |
