Final
Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM ET
Jack Trice Stadium · 80° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Bowling Green–Iowa State) | 11–34 | – | 7–55 |
| Spread | Iowa State −22.6 | Iowa State −22.5 | Iowa State −48 |
| Total | 44.7 | 43.5 | 62 |
| Iowa State win chance | 93% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Iowa State −22.5 Won★ Over 43.5 Won
Spread: 0.1 pts better than Vegas for Iowa State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.2 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Iowa State by 22.61%
Bowling Green by 14+
6%
Bowling Green by 1–13
22%
Iowa State by 1–13
71%
Iowa State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Bowling Green | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Iowa State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.282 #138 | Offense EPA / play | +0.009 #56 |
| +0.172 #128 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.032 #34 |
| −9.8% #135 | Offense success rate | −3.9% #96 |
| +6.2% #120 | Defense success rate allowed | +1.0% #57 |
| −0.383 #138 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.003 #55 |
| −0.130 #107 | Passing EPA / play | +0.036 #46 |
| +0.095 #92 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.023 #39 |
| +0.253 #130 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.002 #49 |
| −14.8 #136 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.2 #71 |
| +8.1 #115 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −2.5 #32 |
| Situational | ||
| −12.5% #137 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.4% #90 |
| +5.3% #110 | Passing-down success allowed | −3.9% #20 |
| −1.64 #135 | Points per drive | −0.50 #87 |
| +1.92 #132 | Points per drive allowed | +0.12 #37 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.79 #136 | Line yards per rush | −0.16 #76 |
| +0.45 #123 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.28 #95 |
| +7.0% #130 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.1% #43 |
| −0.7% #61 | Opponent runs stuffed | −5.5% #129 |
| +2.2% #111 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.9% #93 |
| −3.8% #129 | Havoc created | −0.7% #70 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.304 #137 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.070 #34 |
| −0.086 #101 | Passing explosiveness | +0.144 #22 |
| −0.73 #137 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.24 #84 |
| +0.086 #115 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.110 #33 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 59% #12 | Run rate | 57% #22 |
| −3.2 #29 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −11.4 #63 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Bowling Green | Season to date | Iowa State |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-2 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 0-2 | Home | 3-1 |
| 1-2 | Away | 0-1 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 2-2-1 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 11.4 / 33.0 | Points for / against | 33.6 / 21.2 |
| -21.6 | Avg margin | +12.4 |
| -5.7 | Avg vs. the spread | +5.7 |
| 48.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.6 |
Bowling Green: last 2 games
| L7-56 | |
| L13-20 |
Iowa State: last 2 games
| L13-16 | |
| W38-10 |
