Final
Sat, Sep 19, 10:30 PM ET
Arizona Stadium · 85° · wind 2 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (NIU–Arizona) | 11–39 | – | 17–42 |
| Spread | Arizona −28.4 | Arizona −34.5 | Arizona −25 |
| Total | 50.5 | 50.5 | 59 |
| Arizona win chance | 96% | – | – |
Line moved from Arizona −35.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ NIU +34.5 Won
Spread: 6.1 pts better than Vegas for Northern Illinois (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Arizona by 28.40%
Northern Illinois by 14+
3%
Northern Illinois by 1–13
15%
Arizona by 1–13
82%
Arizona by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| NIU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.226 #137 | Offense EPA / play | +0.007 #59 |
| +0.150 #118 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.011 #48 |
| −8.1% #131 | Offense success rate | +2.7% #31 |
| +7.0% #128 | Defense success rate allowed | −1.4% #29 |
| −0.152 #124 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.051 #33 |
| −0.274 #131 | Passing EPA / play | −0.049 #80 |
| +0.183 #127 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.013 #51 |
| +0.095 #87 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.017 #61 |
| −10.4 #132 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −1.5 #63 |
| +7.8 #113 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −4.5 #19 |
| Situational | ||
| −17.2% #138 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +0.8% #50 |
| +6.3% #121 | Passing-down success allowed | +2.4% #76 |
| −1.23 #124 | Points per drive | −0.33 #74 |
| +1.51 #123 | Points per drive allowed | −0.01 #29 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.55 #128 | Line yards per rush | +0.29 #15 |
| +0.52 #128 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.07 #47 |
| +5.9% #123 | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.9% #11 |
| −6.2% #132 | Opponent runs stuffed | +3.0% #24 |
| +2.3% #116 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.7% #15 |
| −2.5% #108 | Havoc created | +2.4% #20 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.139 #122 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.079 #102 |
| −0.195 #128 | Passing explosiveness | −0.112 #111 |
| −0.44 #118 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.01 #51 |
| −0.128 #28 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.116 #122 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% #36 | Run rate | 47% #118 |
| −0.2 #17 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −8.7 #52 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| NIU | Season to date | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 0-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 1-1 |
| 1-3 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 13.8 / 36.2 | Points for / against | 32.4 / 16.6 |
| -22.5 | Avg margin | +15.8 |
| -3.2 | Avg vs. the spread | -0.2 |
| 53.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.2 |
Northern Illinois: last 2 games
| L24-28 | |
| L0-40 |
Arizona: last 2 games
| L17-28 | |
| W35-7 |
