Final
Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM ET
Bill Snyder Family Stadium · 89° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Tulane–Kansas State) | 16–35 | – | 20–31 |
| Spread | Kansas State −19.8 | Kansas State −20.5 | Kansas State −11 |
| Total | 50.8 | 49.5 | 51 |
| Kansas State win chance | 89% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Tulane +20.5 Won★ Over 49.5 Won
Spread: 0.7 pts better than Vegas for Tulane (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.3 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Kansas State by 19.82%
Tulane by 14+
9%
Tulane by 1–13
25%
Kansas State by 1–13
64%
Kansas State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Tulane | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Kansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.024 #75 | Offense EPA / play | +0.028 #48 |
| +0.025 #69 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.048 #33 |
| −4.6% #119 | Offense success rate | +1.4% #51 |
| +0.8% #68 | Defense success rate allowed | −2.2% #34 |
| +0.013 #74 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.088 #37 |
| −0.075 #88 | Passing EPA / play | −0.027 #65 |
| +0.063 #90 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.032 #71 |
| −0.004 #49 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.059 #29 |
| −7.7 #115 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +6.9 #20 |
| −2.1 #47 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −2.5 #41 |
| Situational | ||
| −9.2% #126 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.5% #29 |
| +2.8% #94 | Passing-down success allowed | −0.1% #62 |
| −0.93 #112 | Points per drive | +1.56 #12 |
| −0.26 #42 | Points per drive allowed | −0.04 #63 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.04 #102 | Line yards per rush | +0.15 #58 |
| +0.27 #115 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.07 #79 |
| +0.3% #100 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.3% #93 |
| −2.7% #108 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.1% #68 |
| +1.3% #125 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.8% #58 |
| −2.9% #121 | Havoc created | +1.4% #32 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.157 #12 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.155 #13 |
| +0.090 #77 | Passing explosiveness | +0.134 #61 |
| +0.71 #5 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.72 #4 |
| −0.047 #42 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.156 #17 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 57% #60 | Run rate | 56% #67 |
| −1.8 #27 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −20.8 #114 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Tulane | Season to date | Kansas State |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 3-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 2-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-1 |
| 1-3 | Against the spread | 2-2 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 3-1 |
| 18.8 / 23.2 | Points for / against | 40.5 / 15.2 |
| -4.5 | Avg margin | +25.2 |
| -3.8 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.9 |
| 61.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.5 |
Tulane: last 2 games
| W28-24 | |
| L3-17 |
Kansas State: last 2 games
| W34-7 | |
| W71-3 |
