Final
Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET
TDECU Stadium · 86° · wind 4 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Oregon State–Houston) | 16–37 | – | 20–33 |
| Spread | Houston −20.7 | Houston −21 | Houston −13 |
| Total | 53.5 | 50.5 | 53 |
| Houston win chance | 90% | – | – |
Line moved from Houston −18.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Oregon State +21 Won★ Over 50.5 Won
Spread: 0.3 pts better than Vegas for Oregon State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.0 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Houston by 20.72%
Oregon State by 14+
8%
Oregon State by 1–13
24%
Houston by 1–13
66%
Houston by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Oregon State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.075 #99 | Offense EPA / play | −0.002 #55 |
| +0.097 #97 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.010 #40 |
| −2.4% #87 | Offense success rate | +0.8% #43 |
| +2.7% #76 | Defense success rate allowed | +1.4% #59 |
| −0.090 #110 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.042 #75 |
| −0.085 #101 | Passing EPA / play | +0.045 #33 |
| +0.072 #90 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.020 #52 |
| +0.098 #96 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.005 #48 |
| −5.8 #105 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +2.0 #45 |
| +5.6 #92 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −1.0 #43 |
| Situational | ||
| −3.1% #92 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.2% #71 |
| +3.5% #101 | Passing-down success allowed | −0.7% #31 |
| −0.53 #91 | Points per drive | −0.01 #53 |
| +1.01 #97 | Points per drive allowed | +0.15 #35 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.28 #102 | Line yards per rush | −0.16 #73 |
| +0.13 #75 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.01 #43 |
| +1.4% #80 | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.9% #65 |
| −0.9% #70 | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.1% #47 |
| +2.2% #121 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.2% #12 |
| +0.2% #48 | Havoc created | −0.2% #63 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.011 #76 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.022 #107 |
| −0.045 #128 | Passing explosiveness | +0.061 #12 |
| −0.20 #100 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.08 #65 |
| −0.036 #52 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.027 #68 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 51% #81 | Run rate | 57% #18 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Oregon State | Season to date | Houston |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 1-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 2-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 5-0 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 37.0 / 23.6 | Points for / against | 41.0 / 19.8 |
| +13.4 | Avg margin | +21.2 |
| +15.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.6 |
| 59.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.2 |
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