Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 7:00 PM ET
FirstBank Stadium · 61° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Arkansas–Vanderbilt) | 22–30 | – |
| Spread | Vanderbilt −8.4 | No line |
| Total | 52.3 | n/a |
| Vanderbilt win chance | 70% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Vanderbilt by 8.48%
Arkansas by 14+
22%
Arkansas by 1–13
34%
Vanderbilt by 1–13
36%
Vanderbilt by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Arkansas | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.049 #81 | Offense EPA / play | +0.013 #56 |
| +0.104 #92 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.024 #41 |
| +1.8% #43 | Offense success rate | −0.3% #61 |
| +1.5% #64 | Defense success rate allowed | −0.9% #39 |
| −0.017 #70 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.123 #13 |
| −0.056 #82 | Passing EPA / play | −0.000 #62 |
| +0.125 #106 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.021 #37 |
| +0.041 #68 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.017 #42 |
| −2.9 #80 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +0.8 #60 |
| +1.6 #69 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −1.6 #44 |
| Situational | ||
| −2.6% #82 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.2% #66 |
| −1.6% #39 | Passing-down success allowed | −2.1% #33 |
| −0.35 #82 | Points per drive | −0.05 #68 |
| +0.96 #98 | Points per drive allowed | −0.10 #33 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.13 #74 | Line yards per rush | +0.21 #21 |
| +0.13 #72 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.11 #33 |
| −1.3% #40 | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.0% #17 |
| −2.9% #98 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.5% #79 |
| +1.1% #93 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.8% #31 |
| −1.9% #95 | Havoc created | −1.0% #74 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.044 #88 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.098 #29 |
| −0.163 #125 | Passing explosiveness | −0.048 #92 |
| −0.50 #118 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.58 #125 |
| −0.157 #23 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.087 #111 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 47% #119 | Run rate | 52% #59 |
| +3.1 #10 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −0.2 #16 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Arkansas | Season to date | Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 2-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-2 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 19.8 / 28.4 | Points for / against | 25.4 / 25.0 |
| -8.6 | Avg margin | +0.4 |
| -7.8 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.1 |
| 55.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.4 |
Arkansas: last 5 games
| L7-34 | |
| W34-6 | |
| L17-45 | |
| L10-43 | |
| W31-14 |
Vanderbilt: last 5 games
| L14-38 | |
| L15-21 | |
| W35-31 | |
| W35-26 | |
| W28-9 |
