Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 3:30 PM ET
Neyland Stadium · 69° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Alabama–Tennessee) | 34–24 | – |
| Spread | Alabama −9.3 | Alabama −1.5 |
| Total | 58.2 | 56.5 |
| Tennessee win chance | 28% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Alabama −1.5 ★ Over 56.5
Spread: 7.8 pts better than Vegas for Alabama (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.7 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Alabama by 9.339%
Alabama by 14+
33%
Alabama by 1–13
21%
Tennessee by 1–13
8%
Tennessee by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Alabama | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.244 #2 | Offense EPA / play | +0.087 #27 |
| −0.217 #1 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.132 #7 |
| +8.8% #7 | Offense success rate | +2.7% #36 |
| −8.6% #4 | Defense success rate allowed | −2.9% #21 |
| +0.186 #5 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.242 #2 |
| +0.287 #6 | Passing EPA / play | −0.124 #100 |
| −0.296 #2 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.027 #55 |
| −0.197 #12 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.242 #5 |
| +20.6 #1 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +11.0 #9 |
| −8.6 #8 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −3.7 #27 |
| Situational | ||
| +4.6% #27 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.7% #95 |
| −7.1% #3 | Passing-down success allowed | −3.1% #26 |
| +2.31 #4 | Points per drive | +1.38 #12 |
| −0.90 #3 | Points per drive allowed | −0.05 #36 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.32 #12 | Line yards per rush | +0.49 #4 |
| −1.06 #1 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.14 #77 |
| −2.0% #32 | Runs stuffed at the line | −4.7% #6 |
| +8.9% #1 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.4% #57 |
| −1.4% #38 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.8% #83 |
| +4.8% #6 | Havoc created | +4.5% #8 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.091 #32 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.179 #6 |
| +0.096 #35 | Passing explosiveness | −0.104 #115 |
| +0.52 #12 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.27 #26 |
| +0.061 #103 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.347 #2 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 54% #49 | Run rate | 58% #19 |
| +5.1 #4 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −3.7 #37 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Alabama | Season to date | Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 4-1 |
| 3-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 3-0 | Home | 3-1 |
| 2-0 | Away | 1-0 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 5-0 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 49.6 / 20.8 | Points for / against | 36.8 / 15.2 |
| +28.8 | Avg margin | +21.6 |
| +13.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.0 |
| 57.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.4 |
Alabama: last 5 games
| W56-23 | |
| W49-18 | |
| W50-36 | |
| W45-17 | |
| W48-10 |
Tennessee: last 5 games
| W24-14 | |
| L17-20 | |
| W42-9 | |
| W45-24 | |
| W56-9 |
