Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 7:30 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK) · 59° · wind 11 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Kentucky–Oklahoma) | 17–24 | – |
| Spread | Oklahoma −7.7 | No line |
| Total | 41.0 | n/a |
| Oklahoma win chance | 69% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Oklahoma by 7.78%
Kentucky by 14+
23%
Kentucky by 1–13
35%
Oklahoma by 1–13
34%
Oklahoma by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Kentucky | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.063 #35 | Offense EPA / play | −0.066 #89 |
| −0.073 #21 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.200 #2 |
| +6.6% #12 | Offense success rate | −0.1% #60 |
| +1.1% #62 | Defense success rate allowed | −9.3% #2 |
| +0.105 #19 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.217 #133 |
| +0.005 #61 | Passing EPA / play | +0.129 #29 |
| −0.011 #42 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.146 #12 |
| −0.128 #20 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.198 #11 |
| +5.5 #26 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −1.7 #75 |
| −3.1 #33 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −11.2 #2 |
| Situational | ||
| +1.8% #45 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +3.5% #35 |
| +4.3% #95 | Passing-down success allowed | −5.9% #8 |
| +0.37 #42 | Points per drive | +0.44 #40 |
| −0.32 #20 | Points per drive allowed | −1.09 #2 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.37 #8 | Line yards per rush | −0.11 #70 |
| −0.14 #29 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.50 #9 |
| −3.9% #12 | Runs stuffed at the line | +3.8% #108 |
| +0.4% #52 | Opponent runs stuffed | +3.3% #20 |
| −1.8% #34 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.4% #55 |
| +2.6% #20 | Havoc created | +5.8% #2 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.146 #122 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.377 #138 |
| −0.081 #104 | Passing explosiveness | +0.045 #49 |
| +0.10 #40 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.10 #41 |
| −0.195 #11 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.189 #12 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 54% #47 | Run rate | 51% #81 |
| +4.6 #5 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +1.6 #12 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Kentucky | Season to date | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-2 |
| 2-1 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 2-1 | Home | 2-0 |
| 2-0 | Away | 0-2 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 1-3 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 1-3 |
| 34.6 / 26.8 | Points for / against | 22.0 / 16.0 |
| +7.8 | Avg margin | +6.0 |
| +4.9 | Avg vs. the spread | -8.0 |
| 61.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 53.2 |
Kentucky: last 5 games
| W35-34 | |
| W45-21 | |
| W31-21 | |
| L17-45 | |
| W45-13 |
Oklahoma: last 4 games
| L13-41 | |
| W14-6 | |
| L10-17 | |
| W51-0 |
