Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 3:30 PM ET
Sanford Stadium · 86° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Auburn–Georgia) | 15–39 | – |
| Spread | Georgia −24.3 | Georgia −16.5 |
| Total | 54.2 | 54.5 |
| Georgia win chance | 94% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Georgia −16.5 ★ Under 54.5
Spread: 7.8 pts better than Vegas for Georgia (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.3 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Georgia by 24.31%
Auburn by 14+
6%
Auburn by 1–13
20%
Georgia by 1–13
74%
Georgia by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Auburn | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.000 #65 | Offense EPA / play | +0.243 #3 |
| −0.095 #18 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.107 #10 |
| +0.3% #55 | Offense success rate | +12.4% #1 |
| −3.1% #20 | Defense success rate allowed | −6.3% #7 |
| +0.083 #26 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.156 #8 |
| −0.098 #92 | Passing EPA / play | +0.253 #7 |
| −0.128 #17 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.311 #1 |
| −0.075 #28 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.057 #32 |
| +0.4 #63 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +17.5 #2 |
| −7.1 #12 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −5.7 #20 |
| Situational | ||
| +2.6% #39 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +9.4% #6 |
| −4.3% #16 | Passing-down success allowed | −7.2% #2 |
| −0.04 #67 | Points per drive | +2.91 #2 |
| −0.78 #4 | Points per drive allowed | −0.09 #34 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.15 #26 | Line yards per rush | +0.60 #1 |
| −0.40 #12 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.71 #4 |
| −1.0% #44 | Runs stuffed at the line | −5.6% #1 |
| +2.1% #28 | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.1% #40 |
| +0.6% #79 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.7% #10 |
| +1.5% #31 | Havoc created | +1.6% #28 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.001 #68 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.196 #129 |
| −0.009 #81 | Passing explosiveness | −0.097 #111 |
| +0.37 #16 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.45 #14 |
| −0.084 #51 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.102 #115 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 51% #84 | Run rate | 50% #95 |
| +4.4 #6 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −10.8 #89 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Auburn | Season to date | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 5-0 |
| 1-2 | Conference | 3-0 |
| 2-1 | Home | 4-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-0 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 5-0 |
| 26.8 / 21.4 | Points for / against | 51.4 / 13.4 |
| +5.4 | Avg margin | +38.0 |
| -2.7 | Avg vs. the spread | +7.7 |
| 66.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 42.6 |
Auburn: last 5 games
| L14-24 | |
| W21-15 | |
| L39-44 | |
| W43-8 | |
| W17-16 |
Georgia: last 5 games
| W38-14 | |
| W41-13 | |
| W45-17 | |
| W70-20 | |
| W63-3 |
