Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 3:30 PM ET
FirstBank Stadium · 63° · wind 12 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Ole Miss–Vanderbilt) | 33–25 | 35–25 | – |
| Spread | Ole Miss −7.2 | Ole Miss −10.0 | Ole Miss −10 |
| Total | 57.9 | 60.2 | 56.5 |
| Vanderbilt win chance | 33% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Vanderbilt +10 ★ Over 56.5
Spread: 2.8 pts better than Vegas for Vanderbilt (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.4 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ Over 56.5
Total: 3.7 pts above Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Ole Miss by 7.234%
Ole Miss by 14+
33%
Ole Miss by 1–13
23%
Vanderbilt by 1–13
10%
Vanderbilt by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Ole Miss | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.185 #8 | Offense EPA / play | +0.013 #56 |
| +0.062 #74 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.025 #41 |
| +9.5% #5 | Offense success rate | −0.3% #61 |
| +2.9% #79 | Defense success rate allowed | −1.0% #39 |
| +0.115 #17 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.123 #13 |
| +0.225 #9 | Passing EPA / play | −0.001 #63 |
| +0.100 #96 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.022 #37 |
| +0.016 #60 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.018 #42 |
| +8.3 #18 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +0.8 #62 |
| −0.5 #50 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −1.7 #43 |
| Situational | ||
| +4.8% #24 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.2% #66 |
| +1.0% #66 | Passing-down success allowed | −2.0% #33 |
| +0.84 #23 | Points per drive | −0.05 #68 |
| −0.16 #28 | Points per drive allowed | −0.10 #32 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.07 #62 | Line yards per rush | +0.21 #21 |
| +0.04 #60 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.12 #32 |
| +0.7% #71 | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.0% #17 |
| +1.4% #37 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.5% #78 |
| −3.2% #15 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.8% #31 |
| −1.7% #92 | Havoc created | −1.0% #74 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.154 #11 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.098 #29 |
| −0.065 #99 | Passing explosiveness | −0.049 #94 |
| −0.20 #78 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.58 #125 |
| −0.105 #38 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.089 #111 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 48% #114 | Run rate | 52% #57 |
| +1.5 #13 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −0.1 #16 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Ole Miss | Season to date | Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 2-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 1-3 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 35.5 / 30.8 | Points for / against | 25.4 / 25.0 |
| +4.8 | Avg margin | +0.4 |
| -6.2 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.1 |
| 64.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.4 |
Ole Miss: last 4 games
| L28-52 | |
| W32-24 | |
| W41-9 | |
| W41-38 |
Vanderbilt: last 5 games
| L14-38 | |
| L15-21 | |
| W35-31 | |
| W35-26 | |
| W28-9 |
