Final
Sat, Oct 3, 4:15 PM ET
Williams-Brice Stadium · 79° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Kentucky–South Carolina) | 25–31 | – | 35–34 |
| Spread | South Carolina −6.3 | South Carolina −2.5 | Kentucky −1 |
| Total | 55.3 | 52.5 | 69 |
| South Carolina win chance | 65% | – | – |
Line moved from South Carolina −7 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ South Carolina −2.5 Lost★ Over 52.5 Won
Spread: 3.8 pts better than Vegas for South Carolina (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 2.8 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around South Carolina by 6.310%
Kentucky by 14+
24%
Kentucky by 1–13
34%
South Carolina by 1–13
32%
South Carolina by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Kentucky | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | South Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.043 #42 | Offense EPA / play | +0.047 #41 |
| −0.065 #22 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.047 #70 |
| +5.2% #15 | Offense success rate | +1.0% #48 |
| +0.1% #49 | Defense success rate allowed | −2.4% #27 |
| +0.065 #35 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.165 #7 |
| +0.006 #60 | Passing EPA / play | −0.061 #86 |
| +0.050 #71 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.089 #18 |
| −0.156 #13 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.156 #103 |
| +3.8 #35 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +4.7 #30 |
| −3.3 #30 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −1.7 #39 |
| Situational | ||
| +3.4% #33 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −4.3% #96 |
| +1.7% #76 | Passing-down success allowed | +3.9% #92 |
| +0.23 #47 | Points per drive | +1.09 #19 |
| −0.19 #27 | Points per drive allowed | −0.07 #32 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.27 #15 | Line yards per rush | +0.54 #3 |
| −0.14 #31 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.54 #5 |
| −2.4% #29 | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.3% #17 |
| +0.5% #51 | Opponent runs stuffed | +5.3% #7 |
| −1.4% #39 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.3% #41 |
| +1.9% #27 | Havoc created | −1.3% #88 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.076 #104 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.173 #9 |
| −0.046 #88 | Passing explosiveness | +0.004 #68 |
| +0.28 #20 | Open-field yards per rush | +1.10 #2 |
| −0.175 #18 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.110 #116 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% #46 | Run rate | 53% #53 |
| +2.8 #6 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −6.5 #41 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Kentucky | Season to date | South Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 2-1 | Conference | 0-3 |
| 2-1 | Home | 2-2 |
| 2-0 | Away | 0-1 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 34.6 / 26.8 | Points for / against | 37.6 / 26.8 |
| +7.8 | Avg margin | +10.8 |
| +4.9 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.8 |
| 61.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.8 |
Kentucky: last 4 games
| W45-21 | |
| W31-21 | |
| L17-45 | |
| W45-13 |
South Carolina: last 4 games
| L18-49 | |
| L34-41 | |
| W45-9 | |
| W57-0 |
