Final
Sat, Oct 3, 3:30 PM ET
Memorial Stadium · 73° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Florida–Missouri) | 31–26 | – | 17–45 |
| Spread | Florida −4.5 | Florida −5.5 | Missouri −28 |
| Total | 56.6 | 57.5 | 62 |
| Missouri win chance | 39% | – | – |
Line moved from Florida −2.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Missouri +5.5 Won★ Under 57.5 Lost
Spread: 1.0 pts better than Vegas for Missouri (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.9 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Florida by 4.528%
Florida by 14+
33%
Florida by 1–13
26%
Missouri by 1–13
13%
Missouri by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Florida | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Missouri |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.198 #8 | Offense EPA / play | +0.046 #42 |
| −0.077 #24 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.126 #9 |
| +8.7% #9 | Offense success rate | +0.9% #59 |
| −1.0% #49 | Defense success rate allowed | −6.3% #11 |
| +0.277 #1 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.002 #84 |
| +0.142 #24 | Passing EPA / play | +0.131 #25 |
| −0.015 #52 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.093 #19 |
| −0.039 #41 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.121 #21 |
| +15.1 #3 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +1.6 #51 |
| −2.5 #37 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −2.9 #35 |
| Situational | ||
| +5.7% #18 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +3.2% #32 |
| +1.9% #89 | Passing-down success allowed | −3.2% #31 |
| +2.39 #4 | Points per drive | +0.18 #51 |
| −0.12 #51 | Points per drive allowed | −0.35 #40 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.36 #27 | Line yards per rush | +0.31 #37 |
| +0.29 #116 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.48 #12 |
| −5.5% #20 | Runs stuffed at the line | −4.0% #42 |
| −5.2% #133 | Opponent runs stuffed | +4.9% #15 |
| −5.6% #8 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.4% #89 |
| +2.6% #17 | Havoc created | +5.1% #3 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.192 #8 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.114 #119 |
| +0.049 #90 | Passing explosiveness | +0.183 #42 |
| +0.46 #11 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.18 #74 |
| −0.060 #40 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.061 #93 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 62% #14 | Run rate | 58% #39 |
| −5.5 #41 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −13.4 #110 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Florida | Season to date | Missouri |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| 2-1 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 3-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 1-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 46.2 / 27.2 | Points for / against | 37.6 / 20.0 |
| +19.0 | Avg margin | +17.6 |
| +1.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.2 |
| 53.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.8 |
Florida: last 4 games
| W52-28 | |
| W44-39 | |
| W52-3 | |
| W66-21 |
Missouri: last 4 games
| L24-31 | |
| W27-17 | |
| W38-21 | |
| W54-14 |
