Final
Sat, Oct 3, 12:00 PM ET
Davis Wade Stadium · 85° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Alabama–MSST) | 37–27 | – | 56–23 |
| Spread | Alabama −10.5 | Alabama −5.5 | Alabama −33 |
| Total | 64.5 | 62.5 | 79 |
| Mississippi State win chance | 26% | – | – |
Line moved from Alabama −3 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Alabama −5.5 Won★ Over 62.5 Won
Spread: 5.0 pts better than Vegas for Alabama (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 2.0 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Alabama by 10.542%
Alabama by 14+
32%
Alabama by 1–13
19%
Mississippi State by 1–13
7%
Mississippi State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Alabama | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.205 #6 | Offense EPA / play | +0.186 #10 |
| −0.165 #5 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.036 #35 |
| +7.8% #11 | Offense success rate | +7.9% #10 |
| −7.2% #5 | Defense success rate allowed | −1.0% #40 |
| +0.159 #8 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.199 #4 |
| +0.217 #10 | Passing EPA / play | +0.204 #12 |
| −0.210 #2 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.056 #28 |
| −0.171 #12 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.082 #27 |
| +18.1 #2 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +11.3 #9 |
| −6.6 #11 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −1.8 #37 |
| Situational | ||
| +1.7% #45 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +7.6% #10 |
| −5.5% #10 | Passing-down success allowed | −4.4% #14 |
| +1.91 #7 | Points per drive | +1.33 #13 |
| −0.71 #5 | Points per drive allowed | −0.19 #28 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.19 #24 | Line yards per rush | +0.39 #6 |
| −0.91 #1 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.12 #34 |
| +0.2% #60 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.6% #43 |
| +8.2% #2 | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.5% #50 |
| −0.4% #52 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.7% #21 |
| +3.5% #9 | Havoc created | +2.1% #24 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.049 #46 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.005 #65 |
| +0.024 #60 | Passing explosiveness | +0.092 #38 |
| +0.53 #9 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.31 #18 |
| +0.058 #103 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.099 #38 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% #57 | Run rate | 53% #54 |
| +1.8 #10 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −3.7 #26 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Alabama | Season to date | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 4-1 |
| 3-0 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 3-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 2-0 | Away | 2-0 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 5-0 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 49.6 / 20.8 | Points for / against | 39.0 / 28.0 |
| +28.8 | Avg margin | +11.0 |
| +13.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +6.0 |
| 57.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 61.0 |
Alabama: last 4 games
| W49-18 | |
| W50-36 | |
| W45-17 | |
| W48-10 |
Mississippi State: last 4 games
| W31-24 | |
| W41-34 | |
| W38-13 | |
| W62-13 |
