Final
Sat, Sep 26, 7:30 PM ET
Tiger Stadium (LA) · 81° · wind 3 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Texas A&M–LSU) | 23–28 | – | 6–35 |
| Spread | LSU −5.7 | LSU −8.5 | LSU −29 |
| Total | 51.0 | 52.5 | 41 |
| LSU win chance | 64% | – | – |
Line moved from LSU −3 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Texas A&M +8.5 Lost★ Under 52.5 Won
Spread: 2.8 pts better than Vegas for Texas A&M (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.5 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around LSU by 5.711%
Texas A&M by 14+
25%
Texas A&M by 1–13
34%
LSU by 1–13
30%
LSU by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Texas A&M | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.006 #62 | Offense EPA / play | +0.062 #33 |
| −0.081 #18 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.208 #2 |
| +3.2% #35 | Offense success rate | +5.8% #17 |
| −4.2% #19 | Defense success rate allowed | −10.6% #1 |
| +0.012 #82 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.100 #34 |
| +0.030 #43 | Passing EPA / play | +0.007 #49 |
| −0.156 #8 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.181 #3 |
| −0.019 #46 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.262 #2 |
| +8.5 #15 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +8.5 #14 |
| −6.4 #12 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −8.8 #9 |
| Situational | ||
| +4.5% #18 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +7.9% #8 |
| −2.1% #40 | Passing-down success allowed | −6.1% #9 |
| +0.75 #26 | Points per drive | +0.96 #21 |
| −0.94 #8 | Points per drive allowed | −1.02 #7 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.17 #58 | Line yards per rush | +0.38 #20 |
| −0.21 #34 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.99 #2 |
| −2.3% #64 | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.5% #50 |
| +2.3% #41 | Opponent runs stuffed | +8.7% #1 |
| −2.7% #39 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.3% #95 |
| +1.6% #23 | Havoc created | +4.0% #5 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.070 #104 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.010 #79 |
| −0.045 #121 | Passing explosiveness | +0.062 #86 |
| −0.00 #50 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.08 #40 |
| +0.141 #118 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.148 #120 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 54% #90 | Run rate | 53% #94 |
| −2.2 #26 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +3.0 #10 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Texas A&M | Season to date | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| 1-2 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 3-1 | Home | 4-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 31.8 / 18.6 | Points for / against | 43.6 / 15.2 |
| +13.2 | Avg margin | +28.4 |
| -1.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +6.5 |
| 62.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.8 |
Texas A&M: last 3 games
| L21-31 | |
| W48-20 | |
| W50-0 |
LSU: last 3 games
| L24-32 | |
| W45-14 | |
| W51-10 |
