Final
Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM ET
Sanford Stadium · 79° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Oklahoma–Georgia) | 17–33 | – | 13–41 |
| Spread | Georgia −15.6 | Georgia −11.5 | Georgia −28 |
| Total | 49.7 | 43.5 | 54 |
| Georgia win chance | 84% | – | – |
Line moved from Georgia −10 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Georgia −11.5 Won★ Over 43.5 Won
Spread: 4.1 pts better than Vegas for Georgia (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 6.2 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Georgia by 15.63%
Oklahoma by 14+
13%
Oklahoma by 1–13
30%
Georgia by 1–13
54%
Georgia by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Oklahoma | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.016 #70 | Offense EPA / play | +0.257 #2 |
| −0.153 #5 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.084 #13 |
| −0.2% #61 | Offense success rate | +11.0% #1 |
| −8.0% #2 | Defense success rate allowed | −6.2% #7 |
| −0.078 #96 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.233 #2 |
| +0.101 #32 | Passing EPA / play | +0.209 #14 |
| −0.101 #14 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.151 #7 |
| −0.184 #9 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.132 #17 |
| −1.2 #71 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +16.2 #2 |
| −13.0 #1 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −4.4 #21 |
| Situational | ||
| +2.6% #38 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +9.6% #4 |
| −3.3% #23 | Passing-down success allowed | −10.0% #1 |
| +0.69 #29 | Points per drive | +3.15 #1 |
| −1.05 #2 | Points per drive allowed | +0.25 #48 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.11 #69 | Line yards per rush | +0.66 #1 |
| −0.41 #11 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.86 #3 |
| +4.7% #120 | Runs stuffed at the line | −4.2% #5 |
| +3.1% #22 | Opponent runs stuffed | +3.4% #20 |
| +0.3% #73 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.1% #26 |
| +6.1% #2 | Havoc created | +1.8% #25 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.134 #119 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.013 #58 |
| +0.121 #28 | Passing explosiveness | −0.070 #99 |
| −0.27 #89 | Open-field yards per rush | +1.05 #2 |
| −0.180 #18 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.060 #52 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 51% #79 | Run rate | 52% #74 |
| −4.6 #34 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −23.5 #134 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Oklahoma | Season to date | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 5-0 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 3-0 |
| 2-0 | Home | 4-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-0 |
| 1-3 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 1-3 | Over/under | 5-0 |
| 22.0 / 16.0 | Points for / against | 51.4 / 13.4 |
| +6.0 | Avg margin | +38.0 |
| -8.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +7.7 |
| 53.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 42.6 |
Oklahoma: last 3 games
| W14-6 | |
| L10-17 | |
| W51-0 |
Georgia: last 3 games
| W45-17 | |
| W70-20 | |
| W63-3 |
