Final
Sat, Sep 26, 4:15 PM ET
Jordan-Hare Stadium · 80° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Vanderbilt–Auburn) | 25–32 | – | 15–21 |
| Spread | Auburn −7.3 | Auburn −10 | Auburn −6 |
| Total | 56.5 | 54.5 | 36 |
| Auburn win chance | 68% | – | – |
Line moved from Auburn −8.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Vanderbilt +10 Won★ Over 54.5 Lost
Spread: 2.7 pts better than Vegas for Vanderbilt (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.0 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Auburn by 7.39%
Vanderbilt by 14+
23%
Vanderbilt by 1–13
34%
Auburn by 1–13
34%
Auburn by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Vanderbilt | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Auburn |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.034 #46 | Offense EPA / play | +0.031 #49 |
| −0.048 #27 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.041 #29 |
| +0.3% #57 | Offense success rate | +2.1% #41 |
| −1.2% #34 | Defense success rate allowed | −2.9% #20 |
| +0.096 #21 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.072 #26 |
| +0.001 #62 | Passing EPA / play | −0.037 #81 |
| −0.003 #47 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.153 #5 |
| −0.085 #24 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.080 #83 |
| +3.0 #37 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +2.9 #39 |
| +0.2 #58 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −3.5 #25 |
| Situational | ||
| −1.0% #68 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +1.3% #49 |
| −3.7% #19 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.3% #54 |
| −0.03 #63 | Points per drive | +0.13 #50 |
| +0.06 #35 | Points per drive allowed | −0.47 #10 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.16 #24 | Line yards per rush | +0.15 #26 |
| −0.02 #47 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.48 #7 |
| −2.5% #21 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.3% #44 |
| −0.6% #63 | Opponent runs stuffed | +2.6% #31 |
| −1.3% #43 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.5% #100 |
| +1.6% #27 | Havoc created | +0.7% #45 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.034 #52 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.174 #131 |
| −0.139 #118 | Passing explosiveness | −0.033 #86 |
| −0.36 #106 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.21 #27 |
| +0.006 #84 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.050 #101 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% #75 | Run rate | 50% #94 |
| −6.5 #40 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +0.3 #15 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Vanderbilt | Season to date | Auburn |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 1-2 |
| 3-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 25.4 / 25.0 | Points for / against | 26.8 / 21.4 |
| +0.4 | Avg margin | +5.4 |
| -3.1 | Avg vs. the spread | -2.7 |
| 63.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 66.8 |
Vanderbilt: last 3 games
| W35-31 | |
| W35-26 | |
| W28-9 |
Auburn: last 3 games
| L39-44 | |
| W43-8 | |
| W17-16 |
