Final
Sat, Sep 26, 7:00 PM ET
Bryant-Denny Stadium · 77° · wind 4 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (South Carolina–Alabama) | 19–38 | – | 18–49 |
| Spread | Alabama −18.6 | Alabama −12.5 | Alabama −31 |
| Total | 57.0 | 53.5 | 67 |
| Alabama win chance | 88% | – | – |
Line moved from Alabama −11.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Alabama −12.5 Won★ Over 53.5 Won
Spread: 6.1 pts better than Vegas for Alabama (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.5 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Alabama by 18.62%
South Carolina by 14+
10%
South Carolina by 1–13
26%
Alabama by 1–13
61%
Alabama by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| South Carolina | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.011 #57 | Offense EPA / play | +0.187 #7 |
| +0.014 #52 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.197 #2 |
| −0.3% #63 | Offense success rate | +7.5% #10 |
| −2.3% #24 | Defense success rate allowed | −7.8% #3 |
| +0.113 #17 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.175 #6 |
| −0.077 #92 | Passing EPA / play | +0.183 #18 |
| −0.093 #18 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.233 #1 |
| +0.114 #94 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.213 #5 |
| +4.5 #29 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +17.3 #1 |
| −3.1 #28 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −6.9 #10 |
| Situational | ||
| −3.2% #86 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +1.4% #48 |
| +2.5% #83 | Passing-down success allowed | −4.3% #15 |
| +1.12 #18 | Points per drive | +1.90 #7 |
| −0.27 #22 | Points per drive allowed | −0.60 #8 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.35 #9 | Line yards per rush | +0.17 #21 |
| −0.53 #6 | Line yards per rush allowed | −1.02 #1 |
| −3.0% #14 | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.3% #65 |
| +5.1% #8 | Opponent runs stuffed | +8.0% #2 |
| +1.4% #99 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.5% #59 |
| −2.0% #97 | Havoc created | +5.2% #4 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.056 #43 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.072 #31 |
| +0.061 #47 | Passing explosiveness | −0.014 #80 |
| +0.96 #3 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.44 #12 |
| +0.038 #93 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.064 #107 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 51% #78 | Run rate | 53% #55 |
| −16.1 #105 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +2.4 #8 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| South Carolina | Season to date | Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 5-0 |
| 0-3 | Conference | 3-0 |
| 2-2 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 2-0 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 5-0 |
| 37.6 / 26.8 | Points for / against | 49.6 / 20.8 |
| +10.8 | Avg margin | +28.8 |
| -3.8 | Avg vs. the spread | +13.9 |
| 63.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.0 |
South Carolina: last 3 games
| L34-41 | |
| W45-9 | |
| W57-0 |
Alabama: last 3 games
| W50-36 | |
| W45-17 | |
| W48-10 |
