Final
Sat, Sep 19, 12:45 PM ET
FirstBank Stadium · 95° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (NC State–Vanderbilt) | 29–25 | – | 31–35 |
| Spread | NC State −3.7 | Vanderbilt −3 | Vanderbilt −4 |
| Total | 54.7 | 50.5 | 66 |
| Vanderbilt win chance | 41% | – | – |
Line moved from Vanderbilt −4 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ NC State +3 Lost★ Over 50.5 Won
Spread: 6.7 pts better than Vegas for NC State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.2 pts above Vegas (50% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around NC State by 3.726%
NC State by 14+
33%
NC State by 1–13
27%
Vanderbilt by 1–13
14%
Vanderbilt by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| NC State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.110 #20 | Offense EPA / play | −0.007 #65 |
| +0.034 #62 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.033 #32 |
| +3.4% #26 | Offense success rate | +0.3% #57 |
| +0.7% #51 | Defense success rate allowed | −0.4% #42 |
| +0.032 #39 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.010 #47 |
| +0.232 #9 | Passing EPA / play | −0.040 #76 |
| −0.158 #7 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.052 #72 |
| +0.137 #104 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.097 #20 |
| +6.2 #23 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +1.3 #45 |
| −1.9 #39 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −0.6 #50 |
| Situational | ||
| +6.4% #16 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −2.4% #84 |
| −2.9% #26 | Passing-down success allowed | −4.0% #18 |
| +1.59 #13 | Points per drive | −0.17 #62 |
| +0.20 #45 | Points per drive allowed | +0.26 #49 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.01 #47 | Line yards per rush | +0.02 #45 |
| −0.38 #10 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.08 #60 |
| +0.9% #66 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.6% #33 |
| +1.5% #39 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.6% #60 |
| +0.8% #89 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.0% #43 |
| −0.9% #72 | Havoc created | +2.9% #13 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.072 #101 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.026 #80 |
| +0.009 #68 | Passing explosiveness | −0.157 #120 |
| +0.62 #7 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.29 #88 |
| +0.109 #120 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.053 #102 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% #51 | Run rate | 54% #40 |
| −11.8 #67 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −13.1 #77 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| NC State | Season to date | Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 3-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-2 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 36.8 / 25.6 | Points for / against | 25.4 / 25.0 |
| +11.2 | Avg margin | +0.4 |
| +4.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.1 |
| 62.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.4 |
Vanderbilt: last 2 games
| W35-26 | |
| W28-9 |
