Final
Sat, Sep 19, 3:30 PM ET
Bryant-Denny Stadium · 91° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Florida State–Alabama) | 14–43 | – | 36–50 |
| Spread | Alabama −28.9 | Alabama −18.5 | Alabama −14 |
| Total | 57.2 | 50.5 | 86 |
| Alabama win chance | 96% | – | – |
Line moved from Alabama −15.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Alabama −18.5 Lost★ Over 50.5 Won
Spread: 10.4 pts better than Vegas for Alabama (sides with a gap this size have won 46% in the backtest). Total: 6.7 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Alabama by 28.90%
Florida State by 14+
3%
Florida State by 1–13
14%
Alabama by 1–13
82%
Alabama by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Florida State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.077 #27 | Offense EPA / play | +0.154 #12 |
| +0.101 #89 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.238 #2 |
| +0.6% #49 | Offense success rate | +7.4% #8 |
| +2.7% #73 | Defense success rate allowed | −9.5% #2 |
| +0.129 #13 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.190 #6 |
| +0.046 #42 | Passing EPA / play | +0.100 #28 |
| +0.070 #83 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.276 #1 |
| +0.105 #94 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.251 #4 |
| +0.9 #50 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +15.1 #4 |
| −1.1 #47 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −10.1 #4 |
| Situational | ||
| +1.1% #49 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +3.0% #25 |
| +5.6% #115 | Passing-down success allowed | −7.5% #3 |
| +0.09 #49 | Points per drive | +1.94 #7 |
| +0.20 #44 | Points per drive allowed | −0.85 #6 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.22 #19 | Line yards per rush | +0.30 #14 |
| +0.35 #105 | Line yards per rush allowed | −1.07 #1 |
| −4.8% #4 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.9% #18 |
| −6.0% #130 | Opponent runs stuffed | +6.5% #5 |
| +0.3% #76 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.4% #57 |
| −1.1% #80 | Havoc created | +3.6% #10 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.103 #21 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.036 #49 |
| +0.311 #4 | Passing explosiveness | −0.026 #82 |
| +0.06 #44 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.15 #33 |
| +0.074 #109 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.026 #68 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 59% #10 | Run rate | 52% #69 |
| −3.3 #30 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −2.4 #25 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Florida State | Season to date | Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 5-0 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 3-0 |
| 3-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 2-0 |
| 2-2-1 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 5-0 |
| 33.2 / 21.6 | Points for / against | 49.6 / 20.8 |
| +11.6 | Avg margin | +28.8 |
| +1.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +13.9 |
| 59.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.0 |
Florida State: last 2 games
| L24-27 | |
| W34-17 |
Alabama: last 2 games
| W45-17 | |
| W48-10 |
