Final
Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM ET
Kyle Field · 93° · wind 10 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Arizona State–Texas A&M) | 18–37 | – | 20–48 |
| Spread | Texas A&M −19.0 | Texas A&M −15.5 | Texas A&M −28 |
| Total | 55.0 | 51.5 | 68 |
| Texas A&M win chance | 88% | – | – |
Line moved from Texas A&M −14.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Texas A&M −15.5 Won★ Over 51.5 Won
Spread: 3.5 pts better than Vegas for Texas A&M (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 3.5 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Texas A&M by 19.02%
Arizona State by 14+
10%
Arizona State by 1–13
26%
Texas A&M by 1–13
62%
Texas A&M by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Arizona State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Texas A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.118 #16 | Offense EPA / play | +0.109 #17 |
| −0.016 #50 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.160 #5 |
| +4.3% #25 | Offense success rate | +6.8% #8 |
| −0.1% #56 | Defense success rate allowed | −8.6% #2 |
| +0.113 #22 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.094 #34 |
| +0.145 #15 | Passing EPA / play | +0.121 #18 |
| −0.002 #56 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.194 #1 |
| −0.011 #48 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.147 #8 |
| +7.4 #18 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +9.4 #12 |
| +0.0 #62 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −9.1 #10 |
| Situational | ||
| +8.5% #5 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +5.7% #12 |
| −4.2% #19 | Passing-down success allowed | −8.6% #2 |
| +1.02 #23 | Points per drive | +1.07 #21 |
| +0.31 #83 | Points per drive allowed | −1.14 #7 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.17 #56 | Line yards per rush | +0.36 #19 |
| +0.12 #98 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.35 #15 |
| −0.8% #88 | Runs stuffed at the line | −4.4% #32 |
| −2.2% #112 | Opponent runs stuffed | +2.4% #28 |
| −1.6% #64 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.7% #15 |
| −1.1% #89 | Havoc created | +4.0% #4 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.088 #30 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.075 #110 |
| +0.173 #39 | Passing explosiveness | +0.015 #112 |
| +0.56 #7 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.20 #25 |
| −0.080 #35 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.065 #91 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% #90 | Run rate | 56% #63 |
| −40.8 #129 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −17.4 #94 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Arizona State | Season to date | Texas A&M |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 1-2 |
| 1-1 | Home | 3-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-1 |
| 2-2 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 3-1 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 33.2 / 31.8 | Points for / against | 31.8 / 18.6 |
| +1.5 | Avg margin | +13.2 |
| -7.8 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.9 |
| 55.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.0 |
Arizona State: last 1 games
| W70-7 |
Texas A&M: last 1 games
| W50-0 |
