Final
Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM ET
Joan C. Edwards Stadium · 74° · wind 4 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (MTSU–Marshall) | 21–32 | – | 26–28 |
| Spread | Marshall −11.3 | Marshall −11.5 | Marshall −2 |
| Total | 53.3 | 56.5 | 54 |
| Marshall win chance | 76% | – | – |
Line moved from Marshall −17.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ MTSU +11.5 Won★ Under 56.5 Won
Spread: 0.2 pts better than Vegas for Middle Tennessee (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.2 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Marshall by 11.36%
Middle Tennessee by 14+
18%
Middle Tennessee by 1–13
33%
Marshall by 1–13
43%
Marshall by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| MTSU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Marshall |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.123 #120 | Offense EPA / play | −0.057 #95 |
| +0.198 #135 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.140 #125 |
| −4.8% #123 | Offense success rate | −2.3% #97 |
| +7.3% #136 | Defense success rate allowed | +2.6% #97 |
| −0.026 #97 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.114 #134 |
| −0.186 #124 | Passing EPA / play | −0.022 #62 |
| +0.130 #124 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.028 #39 |
| +0.265 #134 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.316 #137 |
| −10.1 #134 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −7.0 #114 |
| +9.7 #132 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +7.0 #115 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.4% #100 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −4.8% #104 |
| +4.0% #112 | Passing-down success allowed | +4.2% #114 |
| −1.13 #130 | Points per drive | −0.94 #119 |
| +1.25 #131 | Points per drive allowed | +0.95 #124 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.08 #76 | Line yards per rush | −0.31 #131 |
| +0.34 #126 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.02 #73 |
| −0.6% #91 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.1% #128 |
| −3.7% #126 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.9% #105 |
| −0.8% #90 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.0% #110 |
| −4.5% #138 | Havoc created | −1.8% #104 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.051 #48 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.202 #135 |
| +0.022 #106 | Passing explosiveness | +0.056 #92 |
| −0.00 #41 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.42 #118 |
| +0.091 #102 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.249 #137 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 45% #136 | Run rate | 57% #54 |
| −42.1 #131 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +12.3 #14 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| MTSU | Season to date | Marshall |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 2-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 1-2 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 20.8 / 28.0 | Points for / against | 22.2 / 35.0 |
| -7.2 | Avg margin | -12.8 |
| -3.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -13.2 |
| 55.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 65.8 |
Middle Tennessee: last 1 games
| W38-14 |
Marshall: last 1 games
| L0-45 |
