Final
Sat, Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) · 79° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Sam Houston–Troy) | 19–30 | – | 21–24 |
| Spread | Troy −11.4 | Troy −15.5 | Troy −3 |
| Total | 49.1 | 52.5 | 45 |
| Troy win chance | 76% | – | – |
Line moved from Troy −17.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Sam Houston +15.5 Won★ Under 52.5 Won
Spread: 4.1 pts better than Vegas for Sam Houston (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 3.4 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Troy by 11.45%
Sam Houston by 14+
18%
Sam Houston by 1–13
33%
Troy by 1–13
44%
Troy by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Sam Houston | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Troy |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.151 #137 | Offense EPA / play | −0.091 #116 |
| +0.117 #123 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.063 #87 |
| −4.8% #127 | Offense success rate | −3.3% #115 |
| +5.8% #134 | Defense success rate allowed | +2.4% #92 |
| −0.028 #110 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.036 #122 |
| −0.211 #138 | Passing EPA / play | −0.113 #114 |
| +0.085 #120 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.052 #95 |
| +0.174 #131 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.085 #88 |
| −9.2 #135 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −5.6 #110 |
| +9.6 #136 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +3.3 #87 |
| Situational | ||
| −7.2% #137 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −4.3% #108 |
| +3.7% #129 | Passing-down success allowed | +1.9% #101 |
| −1.00 #134 | Points per drive | −0.63 #112 |
| +1.17 #136 | Points per drive allowed | +0.40 #86 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.07 #122 | Line yards per rush | −0.04 #110 |
| +0.16 #115 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.11 #98 |
| +0.7% #132 | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.8% #133 |
| −2.8% #134 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.4% #86 |
| +1.1% #134 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.4% #127 |
| −1.9% #119 | Havoc created | −1.5% #109 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.006 #83 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.027 #128 |
| +0.072 #107 | Passing explosiveness | +0.147 #35 |
| −0.17 #85 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.32 #123 |
| +0.006 #65 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.035 #114 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% #100 | Run rate | 56% #56 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Sam Houston | Season to date | Troy |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 1-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-2 |
| 3-1 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 27.8 / 24.0 | Points for / against | 28.0 / 24.0 |
| +3.8 | Avg margin | +4.0 |
| +14.1 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.2 |
| 57.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 74.6 |
Sam Houston: last games
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Troy: last games
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