Final
Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM ET
Fifth Third Stadium · 79° · wind 4 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Georgia State–Kennesaw State) | 23–33 | – | 31–17 |
| Spread | Kennesaw State −9.8 | Kennesaw State −7.5 | Georgia State −14 |
| Total | 56.4 | 55.5 | 48 |
| Kennesaw State win chance | 73% | – | – |
Line moved from Kennesaw State −9.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Kennesaw State −7.5 Lost★ Over 55.5 Lost
Spread: 2.3 pts better than Vegas for Kennesaw State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.9 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Kennesaw State by 9.87%
Georgia State by 14+
20%
Georgia State by 1–13
33%
Kennesaw State by 1–13
40%
Kennesaw State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Georgia State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Kennesaw State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.038 #77 | Offense EPA / play | −0.070 #102 |
| +0.154 #123 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.102 #92 |
| −1.9% #75 | Offense success rate | −2.7% #84 |
| +5.8% #115 | Defense success rate allowed | +3.5% #84 |
| −0.018 #67 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.014 #53 |
| −0.077 #93 | Passing EPA / play | −0.168 #122 |
| +0.187 #130 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.015 #56 |
| +0.128 #101 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.146 #108 |
| −4.1 #93 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −3.9 #90 |
| +11.6 #134 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +5.5 #97 |
| Situational | ||
| +3.1% #22 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −2.6% #95 |
| +4.8% #105 | Passing-down success allowed | +1.3% #67 |
| −0.12 #58 | Points per drive | −0.74 #101 |
| +1.88 #131 | Points per drive allowed | +1.23 #111 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.01 #46 | Line yards per rush | −0.24 #93 |
| +0.43 #121 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.16 #82 |
| −0.4% #48 | Runs stuffed at the line | +4.8% #125 |
| −3.1% #109 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.4% #75 |
| −0.4% #55 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.3% #100 |
| −2.4% #109 | Havoc created | −3.2% #123 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.022 #79 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.155 #9 |
| −0.024 #80 | Passing explosiveness | −0.141 #128 |
| −0.51 #132 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.46 #13 |
| +0.042 #100 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.086 #47 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 48% #111 | Run rate | 53% #54 |
| −52.2 #137 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −38.2 #127 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Georgia State | Season to date | Kennesaw State |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 1-3 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-0 |
| 3-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 5-0 | Against the spread | 3-1 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 0-4 |
| 39.4 / 19.0 | Points for / against | 21.8 / 22.5 |
| +20.4 | Avg margin | -0.8 |
| +17.7 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.2 |
| 59.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 52.0 |
Georgia State: last 1 games
| W59-10 |
Kennesaw State: last 1 games
| W47-0 |
