Final
Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM ET
AmFirst Stadium · 76° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (GASO–JXST) | 23–24 | – | 27–31 |
| Spread | JXST −1.0 | JXST −3.5 | JXST −4 |
| Total | 47.8 | 51.5 | 58 |
| Jacksonville State win chance | 53% | – | – |
Line moved from JXST −2.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ GASO +3.5 Lost★ Under 51.5 Lost
Spread: 2.5 pts better than Vegas for Georgia Southern (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.7 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around JXST by 1.017%
Georgia Southern by 14+
30%
Georgia Southern by 1–13
32%
Jacksonville State by 1–13
20%
Jacksonville State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| GASO | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.065 #90 | Offense EPA / play | −0.076 #95 |
| +0.038 #66 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.097 #87 |
| −3.1% #87 | Offense success rate | −1.5% #72 |
| +0.7% #52 | Defense success rate allowed | +5.5% #104 |
| −0.113 #113 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.138 #119 |
| −0.056 #84 | Passing EPA / play | +0.019 #52 |
| +0.049 #70 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.161 #119 |
| +0.011 #56 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.044 #36 |
| −7.1 #111 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −6.6 #106 |
| +2.8 #73 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +6.0 #98 |
| Situational | ||
| −1.4% #71 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −0.9% #66 |
| +0.3% #48 | Passing-down success allowed | +3.7% #89 |
| −0.91 #109 | Points per drive | −0.36 #77 |
| +0.54 #68 | Points per drive allowed | +1.15 #107 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.02 #44 | Line yards per rush | −0.41 #117 |
| −0.09 #44 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.36 #110 |
| −1.2% #40 | Runs stuffed at the line | +4.8% #117 |
| +2.3% #33 | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.7% #108 |
| +1.4% #103 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.6% #82 |
| +2.1% #22 | Havoc created | −2.4% #105 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.199 #135 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.081 #103 |
| −0.155 #119 | Passing explosiveness | −0.066 #94 |
| −0.24 #82 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.31 #96 |
| −0.264 #7 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.070 #45 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 41% #136 | Run rate | 58% #20 |
| −16.9 #95 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −19.1 #103 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| GASO | Season to date | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 1-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 1-2 | Away | 0-2 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 24.8 / 23.8 | Points for / against | 27.4 / 21.8 |
| +1.0 | Avg margin | +5.6 |
| +3.1 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.6 |
| 64.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 56.0 |
Georgia Southern: last 2 games
| L7-22 | |
| W31-0 |
Jacksonville State: last 3 games
| L27-29 | |
| W49-7 | |
| L7-33 |
