Final
Sat, Oct 3, 7:30 PM ET
Joe Aillet Stadium · 78° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Army–Louisiana Tech) | 25–28 | – | 29–31 |
| Spread | Louisiana Tech −3.2 | Louisiana Tech −1.5 | Louisiana Tech −2 |
| Total | 52.9 | 46.5 | 60 |
| Louisiana Tech win chance | 58% | – | – |
Line moved from Army −3.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Louisiana Tech −1.5 Won★ Over 46.5 Won
Spread: 1.7 pts better than Vegas for Louisiana Tech (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 6.4 pts above Vegas (54% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Louisiana Tech by 3.214%
Army by 14+
28%
Army by 1–13
33%
Louisiana Tech by 1–13
25%
Louisiana Tech by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Army | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Louisiana Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.004 #65 | Offense EPA / play | −0.062 #92 |
| +0.157 #122 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.004 #56 |
| +0.2% #67 | Offense success rate | −4.4% #108 |
| +5.3% #120 | Defense success rate allowed | −2.9% #35 |
| +0.153 #19 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.029 #97 |
| −0.079 #87 | Passing EPA / play | −0.047 #78 |
| +0.139 #120 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.011 #68 |
| +0.199 #120 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.033 #65 |
| −3.5 #86 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +0.6 #60 |
| −0.2 #64 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +6.0 #106 |
| Situational | ||
| −6.9% #111 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.1% #80 |
| +5.2% #120 | Passing-down success allowed | −2.6% #39 |
| −0.00 #63 | Points per drive | +0.60 #32 |
| +0.34 #87 | Points per drive allowed | +0.44 #95 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.46 #15 | Line yards per rush | −0.16 #110 |
| +0.46 #130 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.21 #33 |
| −6.6% #8 | Runs stuffed at the line | +3.0% #124 |
| −1.1% #90 | Opponent runs stuffed | +2.3% #42 |
| −7.5% #1 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.4% #91 |
| −3.5% #128 | Havoc created | +2.4% #19 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.053 #50 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.265 #135 |
| +0.267 #21 | Passing explosiveness | +0.461 #4 |
| +0.04 #44 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.01 #54 |
| +0.126 #111 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.081 #99 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 88% #1 | Run rate | 58% #44 |
| −15.6 #120 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −13.8 #113 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Army | Season to date | Louisiana Tech |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 2-2 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 0-0 |
| 1-1 | Home | 2-0 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 1-2-1 | Against the spread | 4-0 |
| 3-1 | Over/under | 4-0 |
| 33.2 / 19.8 | Points for / against | 36.0 / 29.0 |
| +13.5 | Avg margin | +7.0 |
| +2.8 | Avg vs. the spread | +9.2 |
| 60.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 49.8 |
Army: last 3 games
| W21-17 | |
| L24-28 | |
| W59-3 |
Louisiana Tech: last 3 games
| L19-36 | |
| L14-45 | |
| W80-6 |
