Final
Sat, Sep 5, 8:00 PM ET
Cajun Field · 80° · wind 1 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Lamar–Louisiana) | 13–40 | – | 7–38 |
| Spread | Louisiana −26.4 | Louisiana −20.5 | Louisiana −31 |
| Total | 52.9 | 48.5 | 45 |
| Louisiana win chance | 95% | – | – |
Line moved from Louisiana −18.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Louisiana −20.5 Won★ Over 48.5 Lost
Spread: 5.9 pts better than Vegas for Louisiana (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.4 pts above Vegas (49% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Louisiana by 26.41%
Lamar by 14+
4%
Lamar by 1–13
17%
Louisiana by 1–13
78%
Louisiana by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Lamar | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.327 | Offense EPA / play | −0.072 #107 |
| +0.161 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.076 #96 |
| −14.2% | Offense success rate | −2.8% #109 |
| +6.8% | Defense success rate allowed | +4.2% #119 |
| −0.246 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.017 #75 |
| −0.400 | Passing EPA / play | −0.106 #109 |
| +0.098 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.078 #115 |
| +0.164 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.088 #91 |
| −18.3 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −4.3 #93 |
| +9.6 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +4.7 #101 |
| Situational | ||
| −16.8% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −4.7% #114 |
| +10.1% | Passing-down success allowed | +1.5% #90 |
| −2.54 | Points per drive | −0.51 #98 |
| +1.68 | Points per drive allowed | +0.52 #98 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.50 | Line yards per rush | +0.06 #80 |
| +0.30 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.20 #123 |
| +0.5% | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.3% #81 |
| −2.3% | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.4% #110 |
| −3.7% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.1% #78 |
| −9.8% | Havoc created | −1.7% #116 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.032 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.009 #76 |
| +0.153 | Passing explosiveness | +0.100 #75 |
| −0.92 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.15 #78 |
| −0.032 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.006 #46 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 59% | Run rate | 62% #19 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Lamar | Season to date | Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 3-1-1 |
| 0-1 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 7.0 / 38.0 | Points for / against | 29.2 / 19.4 |
| -31.0 | Avg margin | +9.8 |
| -10.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +7.6 |
| 45.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.2 |
Lamar: last games
No games yet.
Louisiana: last games
No games yet.