Final
Sat, Sep 5, 5:00 PM ET
M. M. Roberts Stadium · 81° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Alcorn State–Southern Miss) | 9–44 | – | 3–49 |
| Spread | Southern Miss −35.3 | Southern Miss −20.5 | Southern Miss −46 |
| Total | 53.6 | 51.5 | 52 |
| Southern Miss win chance | 99% | – | – |
Line moved from Southern Miss −21 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Southern Miss −20.5 Won★ Over 51.5 Won
Spread: 14.8 pts better than Vegas for Southern Miss (sides with a gap this size have won 48% in the backtest). Total: 2.1 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Southern Miss by 35.30%
Alcorn State by 14+
1%
Alcorn State by 1–13
8%
Southern Miss by 1–13
91%
Southern Miss by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Alcorn State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Southern Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.354 | Offense EPA / play | −0.045 #84 |
| +0.257 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.031 #68 |
| −12.3% | Offense success rate | −3.0% #110 |
| +11.3% | Defense success rate allowed | +1.5% #84 |
| −0.251 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.001 #92 |
| −0.406 | Passing EPA / play | −0.041 #74 |
| +0.216 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.055 #98 |
| +0.268 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.039 #59 |
| −25.9 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −3.1 #82 |
| +20.3 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +3.6 #89 |
| Situational | ||
| −11.9% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.4% #91 |
| +13.8% | Passing-down success allowed | +0.4% #66 |
| −3.82 | Points per drive | −0.47 #95 |
| +2.72 | Points per drive allowed | +0.32 #82 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.87 | Line yards per rush | +0.09 #68 |
| +0.48 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.05 #81 |
| +7.0% | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.7% #66 |
| −0.5% | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.5% #88 |
| −0.2% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.3% #111 |
| −10.0% | Havoc created | +0.4% #41 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.131 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.024 #124 |
| −0.086 | Passing explosiveness | +0.212 #8 |
| −0.49 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.48 #136 |
| −0.182 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.002 #51 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 56% | Run rate | 55% #67 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Alcorn State | Season to date | Southern Miss |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 1-4 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-3 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 3.0 / 49.0 | Points for / against | 26.4 / 34.6 |
| -46.0 | Avg margin | -8.2 |
| -25.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.3 |
| 68.7 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.2 |
Alcorn State: last games
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Southern Miss: last games
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