Final
Sat, Sep 12, 4:00 PM ET
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) · 84° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Alabama State–Troy) | 18–38 | – | 17–34 |
| Spread | Troy −19.9 | Troy −23.5 | Troy −17 |
| Total | 55.5 | 52.5 | 51 |
| Troy win chance | 89% | – | – |
Line moved from Troy −22.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Alabama State +23.5 Won★ Over 52.5 Lost
Spread: 3.6 pts better than Vegas for Alabama State (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 3.0 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Troy by 19.92%
Alabama State by 14+
9%
Alabama State by 1–13
25%
Troy by 1–13
64%
Troy by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Alabama State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Troy |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.136 | Offense EPA / play | −0.097 #113 |
| +0.258 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.094 #99 |
| −9.4% | Offense success rate | −6.6% #129 |
| +15.2% | Defense success rate allowed | +5.4% #129 |
| −0.102 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.059 #116 |
| −0.041 | Passing EPA / play | −0.127 #106 |
| +0.277 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.031 #37 |
| +0.127 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.144 #108 |
| −16.8 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −8.4 #122 |
| +15.0 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +4.4 #101 |
| Situational | ||
| −13.4% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −5.1% #106 |
| +13.7% | Passing-down success allowed | +4.5% #120 |
| −2.45 | Points per drive | −1.24 #132 |
| +2.14 | Points per drive allowed | +0.35 #90 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.51 | Line yards per rush | −0.15 #116 |
| +0.90 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.14 #35 |
| +6.3% | Runs stuffed at the line | +4.0% #134 |
| −7.8% | Opponent runs stuffed | +4.8% #11 |
| −0.2% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +2.4% #136 |
| −0.8% | Havoc created | −0.2% #67 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.206 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.070 #38 |
| +0.026 | Passing explosiveness | +0.278 #15 |
| −0.43 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.32 #102 |
| −0.180 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.013 #66 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 63% | Run rate | 57% #53 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −15.0 #86 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Alabama State | Season to date | Troy |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 0-1 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 17.0 / 34.0 | Points for / against | 28.0 / 24.0 |
| -17.0 | Avg margin | +4.0 |
| +6.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.2 |
| 53.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 74.6 |
Alabama State: last games
No games yet.
Troy: last 1 games
| W24-21 |
