Final
Sat, Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET
Hancock Whitney Stadium · 80° · wind 3 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (SE Louisiana–South Alabama) | 16–40 | – | 14–39 |
| Spread | South Alabama −24.0 | South Alabama −13.5 | South Alabama −25 |
| Total | 56.3 | 53.5 | 53 |
| South Alabama win chance | 93% | – | – |
Line moved from South Alabama −12.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ South Alabama −13.5 Won★ Over 53.5 Lost
Spread: 10.5 pts better than Vegas for South Alabama (sides with a gap this size have won 48% in the backtest). Total: 2.8 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around South Alabama by 24.01%
SE Louisiana by 14+
6%
SE Louisiana by 1–13
20%
South Alabama by 1–13
73%
South Alabama by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| SE Louisiana | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | South Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.218 | Offense EPA / play | −0.058 #96 |
| +0.263 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.112 #120 |
| −9.1% | Offense success rate | −2.2% #101 |
| +9.6% | Defense success rate allowed | +3.7% #113 |
| −0.113 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.035 #66 |
| −0.248 | Passing EPA / play | −0.117 #117 |
| +0.259 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.086 #122 |
| +0.341 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.140 #118 |
| −13.8 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −4.7 #100 |
| +14.0 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +5.9 #116 |
| Situational | ||
| −9.5% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −4.5% #111 |
| +5.7% | Passing-down success allowed | +1.9% #99 |
| −1.58 | Points per drive | −0.55 #104 |
| +2.10 | Points per drive allowed | +0.67 #109 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.29 | Line yards per rush | +0.06 #78 |
| +0.55 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.17 #117 |
| +2.7% | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.4% #42 |
| −4.7% | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.7% #120 |
| +1.2% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.7% #24 |
| −8.8% | Havoc created | −2.5% #127 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.234 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.047 #8 |
| −0.004 | Passing explosiveness | +0.127 #47 |
| +0.07 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.22 #96 |
| +0.047 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.059 #128 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 57% | Run rate | 66% #8 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| SE Louisiana | Season to date | South Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 1-1 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-1 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 26.0 / 37.0 | Points for / against | 35.4 / 31.6 |
| -11.0 | Avg margin | +3.8 |
| +0.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.2 |
| 57.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 69.2 |
SE Louisiana: last games
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South Alabama: last games
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