Final
Sat, Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET
Allen E. Paulson Stadium · 84° · wind 4 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (CHSO–GASO) | 10–43 | – | 0–31 |
| Spread | GASO −33.3 | GASO −28.5 | GASO −31 |
| Total | 53.4 | 51.5 | 31 |
| Georgia Southern win chance | 98% | – | – |
Line moved from GASO −25.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ GASO −28.5 Won★ Over 51.5 Lost
Spread: 4.8 pts better than Vegas for Georgia Southern (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 1.9 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around GASO by 33.30%
Charleston Southern by 14+
2%
Charleston Southern by 1–13
10%
Georgia Southern by 1–13
89%
Georgia Southern by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| CHSO | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.311 | Offense EPA / play | −0.001 #59 |
| +0.264 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.119 #125 |
| −13.4% | Offense success rate | +0.2% #61 |
| +8.8% | Defense success rate allowed | +5.0% #131 |
| −0.227 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.034 #67 |
| −0.376 | Passing EPA / play | −0.016 #60 |
| +0.141 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.108 #134 |
| +0.371 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.100 #99 |
| −24.9 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.3 #75 |
| +10.1 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +5.8 #115 |
| Situational | ||
| −12.8% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −0.4% #50 |
| +7.5% | Passing-down success allowed | +2.7% #113 |
| −2.85 | Points per drive | −0.29 #82 |
| +1.57 | Points per drive allowed | +0.75 #117 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.52 | Line yards per rush | +0.15 #50 |
| +0.65 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.22 #125 |
| +6.1% | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.3% #45 |
| −4.2% | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.0% #100 |
| −1.2% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.9% #48 |
| −10.6% | Havoc created | −0.6% #71 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.032 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.008 #107 |
| +0.104 | Passing explosiveness | +0.107 #66 |
| −0.80 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.19 #91 |
| +0.074 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.017 #31 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% | Run rate | 54% #82 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| CHSO | Season to date | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-2 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 0-1 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 0.0 / 31.0 | Points for / against | 24.8 / 23.8 |
| -31.0 | Avg margin | +1.0 |
| -2.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.1 |
| 49.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.0 |
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