Final
Sat, Oct 3, 3:30 PM ET
Kelly/Shorts Stadium · 64° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Akron–CMU) | 23–24 | – | 17–41 |
| Spread | CMU −0.6 | CMU −6.5 | CMU −24 |
| Total | 46.8 | 47.5 | 58 |
| Central Michigan win chance | 52% | – | – |
Line moved from CMU −5.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Akron +6.5 Lost★ Under 47.5 Lost
Spread: 5.9 pts better than Vegas for Akron (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.7 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around CMU by 0.618%
Akron by 14+
31%
Akron by 1–13
32%
Central Michigan by 1–13
20%
Central Michigan by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Akron | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.177 #127 | Offense EPA / play | −0.139 #116 |
| +0.204 #132 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.151 #113 |
| −3.9% #97 | Offense success rate | −8.4% #132 |
| +6.4% #112 | Defense success rate allowed | +8.4% #132 |
| −0.149 #118 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.027 #76 |
| −0.195 #123 | Passing EPA / play | −0.329 #135 |
| +0.040 #69 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.142 #110 |
| +0.315 #134 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.049 #72 |
| −9.5 #122 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −12.5 #133 |
| +11.7 #131 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +6.0 #97 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.6% #98 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −6.7% #114 |
| +7.1% #124 | Passing-down success allowed | +9.6% #132 |
| −1.05 #111 | Points per drive | −1.37 #125 |
| +1.62 #125 | Points per drive allowed | +1.68 #127 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.13 #74 | Line yards per rush | −0.21 #94 |
| +0.18 #76 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.58 #131 |
| +1.1% #70 | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.1% #71 |
| −1.1% #71 | Opponent runs stuffed | −4.6% #117 |
| +3.9% #129 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.5% #80 |
| −1.4% #90 | Havoc created | −1.0% #83 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.180 #131 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.125 #20 |
| −0.141 #120 | Passing explosiveness | −0.382 #138 |
| −0.37 #107 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.34 #102 |
| +0.231 #135 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.205 #11 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 45% #126 | Run rate | 65% #6 |
| −10.4 #73 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −5.8 #35 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Akron | Season to date | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 1-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 0-2 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 19.0 / 33.6 | Points for / against | 17.6 / 25.4 |
| -14.6 | Avg margin | -7.8 |
| -5.9 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.9 |
| 51.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 46.6 |
Akron: last 4 games
| L10-38 | |
| L7-41 | |
| W45-10 | |
| L16-38 |
Central Michigan: last 4 games
| L3-52 | |
| W24-10 | |
| W13-10 | |
| L7-38 |
