Final
Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM ET
Dix Stadium · 68° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Ball State–Kent State) | 25–26 | – | 13–26 |
| Spread | Kent State −0.8 | Kent State −2.5 | Kent State −13 |
| Total | 51.6 | 51.5 | 39 |
| Kent State win chance | 52% | – | – |
Line moved from Kent State −4.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Ball State +2.5 Lost★ Over 51.5 Lost
Spread: 1.7 pts better than Vegas for Ball State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.1 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Kent State by 0.818%
Ball State by 14+
30%
Ball State by 1–13
32%
Kent State by 1–13
20%
Kent State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Ball State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Kent State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.130 #114 | Offense EPA / play | −0.140 #117 |
| +0.212 #137 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.143 #123 |
| −7.3% #132 | Offense success rate | −8.4% #136 |
| +6.5% #130 | Defense success rate allowed | +9.5% #138 |
| +0.026 #69 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.084 #119 |
| −0.176 #114 | Passing EPA / play | −0.146 #106 |
| +0.210 #137 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.202 #136 |
| +0.221 #125 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.123 #95 |
| −8.8 #122 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −9.3 #129 |
| +10.9 #132 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +14.0 #138 |
| Situational | ||
| −8.3% #124 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −10.1% #131 |
| +10.5% #137 | Passing-down success allowed | +5.8% #123 |
| −1.00 #116 | Points per drive | −1.14 #121 |
| +1.84 #135 | Points per drive allowed | +2.79 #138 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.16 #120 | Line yards per rush | −0.06 #101 |
| +0.22 #108 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.65 #138 |
| −2.7% #61 | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.6% #107 |
| +0.1% #69 | Opponent runs stuffed | −5.1% #132 |
| +2.8% #134 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.7% #124 |
| −1.6% #93 | Havoc created | −2.2% #107 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.122 #22 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.059 #53 |
| +0.001 #107 | Passing explosiveness | +0.354 #10 |
| +0.32 #20 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.34 #101 |
| −0.071 #35 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.107 #26 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% #82 | Run rate | 59% #39 |
| −3.1 #34 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +0.3 #18 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Ball State | Season to date | Kent State |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 1-1 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-3 | Away | 0-2 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 19.2 / 37.8 | Points for / against | 15.0 / 31.4 |
| -18.6 | Avg margin | -16.4 |
| -3.7 | Avg vs. the spread | -0.6 |
| 52.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 54.2 |
Ball State: last 3 games
| L15-51 | |
| W41-17 | |
| L3-56 |
Kent State: last 3 games
| L3-59 | |
| W36-15 | |
| L0-57 |
