Final
Sat, Sep 19, 3:30 PM ET
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium · 66° · wind 3 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Stonehill–Massachusetts) | 12–43 | – | 14–36 |
| Spread | Massachusetts −31.0 | Massachusetts −30.5 | Massachusetts −22 |
| Total | 54.1 | 50.5 | 50 |
| Massachusetts win chance | 97% | – | – |
Line moved from Massachusetts −33.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Massachusetts −30.5 Lost★ Over 50.5 Lost
Spread: 0.5 pts better than Vegas for Massachusetts (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.6 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Massachusetts by 31.00%
Stonehill by 14+
2%
Stonehill by 1–13
12%
Massachusetts by 1–13
86%
Massachusetts by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Stonehill | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Massachusetts |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.330 | Offense EPA / play | −0.016 #71 |
| +0.267 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.075 #88 |
| −14.5% | Offense success rate | −1.6% #83 |
| +14.1% | Defense success rate allowed | +4.4% #116 |
| −0.461 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.033 #63 |
| −0.090 | Passing EPA / play | +0.015 #48 |
| +0.338 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.058 #35 |
| +0.127 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.147 #106 |
| −27.0 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −6.7 #108 |
| +16.0 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +7.5 #122 |
| Situational | ||
| −10.3% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −5.3% #104 |
| +9.8% | Passing-down success allowed | +0.2% #65 |
| −3.78 | Points per drive | −0.27 #73 |
| +2.18 | Points per drive allowed | +1.07 #126 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.88 | Line yards per rush | −0.01 #93 |
| +1.26 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.07 #80 |
| +7.5% | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.6% #104 |
| −9.4% | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.9% #123 |
| +2.0% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.8% #59 |
| −5.2% | Havoc created | −2.0% #102 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.273 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.079 #40 |
| +0.282 | Passing explosiveness | +0.104 #71 |
| −1.19 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.41 #110 |
| −0.133 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.012 #68 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% | Run rate | 61% #27 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −22.5 #120 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Stonehill | Season to date | Massachusetts |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 2-0 |
| 2-0 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 0-2 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 10.5 / 35.5 | Points for / against | 31.8 / 17.8 |
| -25.0 | Avg margin | +14.0 |
| +6.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +6.8 |
| 58.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 48.0 |
Stonehill: last games
No games yet.
Massachusetts: last 2 games
| W37-10 | |
| W37-21 |
