Final
Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM ET
Hancock Whitney Stadium · 83° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Ohio–South Alabama) | 28–29 | – | 36–41 |
| Spread | South Alabama −1.2 | South Alabama −7 | South Alabama −5 |
| Total | 57.1 | 49.5 | 77 |
| South Alabama win chance | 53% | – | – |
Line moved from South Alabama −3.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Ohio +7 Won★ Over 49.5 Won
Spread: 5.8 pts better than Vegas for Ohio (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 7.6 pts above Vegas (54% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around South Alabama by 1.217%
Ohio by 14+
30%
Ohio by 1–13
31%
South Alabama by 1–13
21%
South Alabama by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Ohio | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | South Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.046 #86 | Offense EPA / play | −0.061 #93 |
| +0.163 #132 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.141 #124 |
| −2.4% #93 | Offense success rate | −3.3% #103 |
| +4.5% #117 | Defense success rate allowed | +3.1% #98 |
| +0.053 #54 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.003 #85 |
| −0.144 #111 | Passing EPA / play | −0.080 #90 |
| +0.123 #115 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.052 #85 |
| +0.241 #130 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.205 #122 |
| −3.5 #86 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −3.1 #82 |
| +5.6 #103 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +5.5 #102 |
| Situational | ||
| −6.5% #112 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −2.9% #85 |
| +10.6% #136 | Passing-down success allowed | +3.6% #109 |
| −0.53 #89 | Points per drive | −0.50 #87 |
| +0.17 #75 | Points per drive allowed | +0.66 #108 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.30 #32 | Line yards per rush | −0.02 #95 |
| +0.20 #99 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.27 #24 |
| −7.1% #3 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.3% #62 |
| +0.5% #61 | Opponent runs stuffed | +2.9% #34 |
| −1.7% #61 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.5% #70 |
| −1.1% #79 | Havoc created | −0.8% #74 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.010 #81 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.081 #36 |
| +0.044 #90 | Passing explosiveness | +0.151 #53 |
| −0.63 #131 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.48 #120 |
| +0.152 #121 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.207 #131 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 63% #16 | Run rate | 62% #17 |
| +0.3 #20 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −17.2 #98 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Ohio | Season to date | South Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 2-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 1-2 | Away | 0-2 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 26.8 / 26.8 | Points for / against | 35.4 / 31.6 |
| +0.0 | Avg margin | +3.8 |
| -1.4 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.2 |
| 61.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 69.2 |
Ohio: last 2 games
| W29-27 | |
| L21-49 |
South Alabama: last 2 games
| L24-28 | |
| W39-14 |
