Final
Sat, Sep 19, 4:00 PM ET
Williams Stadium (VA) · 81° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Ball State–Liberty) | 18–31 | – | 15–51 |
| Spread | Liberty −13.2 | Liberty −14.5 | Liberty −36 |
| Total | 49.8 | 49.5 | 66 |
| Liberty win chance | 80% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Ball State +14.5 Lost★ Over 49.5 Won
Spread: 1.3 pts better than Vegas for Ball State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.3 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Liberty by 13.24%
Ball State by 14+
16%
Ball State by 1–13
32%
Liberty by 1–13
48%
Liberty by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Ball State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.143 #126 | Offense EPA / play | −0.175 #131 |
| +0.147 #126 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.099 #100 |
| −8.5% #134 | Offense success rate | −2.7% #95 |
| +5.7% #130 | Defense success rate allowed | +2.0% #78 |
| +0.032 #67 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.115 #130 |
| −0.192 #121 | Passing EPA / play | −0.211 #124 |
| +0.169 #129 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.116 #112 |
| +0.120 #100 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.071 #77 |
| −8.4 #122 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −9.3 #129 |
| +8.1 #127 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +1.2 #69 |
| Situational | ||
| −8.0% #121 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.4% #88 |
| +4.5% #119 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.0% #63 |
| −0.99 #116 | Points per drive | −1.33 #129 |
| +1.41 #131 | Points per drive allowed | −0.14 #53 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.10 #108 | Line yards per rush | +0.08 #72 |
| +0.09 #81 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.26 #113 |
| −2.4% #61 | Runs stuffed at the line | −4.4% #33 |
| +1.5% #48 | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.0% #67 |
| +3.3% #136 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.5% #113 |
| −0.7% #73 | Havoc created | +0.9% #38 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.206 #7 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.177 #134 |
| +0.021 #102 | Passing explosiveness | +0.381 #10 |
| +0.49 #12 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.24 #81 |
| −0.065 #36 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.061 #91 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% #96 | Run rate | 61% #23 |
| −3.4 #35 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −10.6 #69 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Ball State | Season to date | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 1-1 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 2-1 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 19.2 / 37.8 | Points for / against | 30.4 / 17.8 |
| -18.6 | Avg margin | +12.6 |
| -3.7 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.3 |
| 52.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.4 |
Ball State: last 2 games
| W41-17 | |
| L3-56 |
Liberty: last 2 games
| W24-23 | |
| L13-20 |
