Final
Sat, Sep 12, 6:30 PM ET
Waldo Stadium · 76° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Monmouth–WMU) | 11–45 | – | 14–49 |
| Spread | WMU −33.8 | WMU −29.5 | WMU −35 |
| Total | 56.1 | 54.5 | 63 |
| Western Michigan win chance | 98% | – | – |
Line moved from WMU −25.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ WMU −29.5 Won★ Over 54.5 Won
Spread: 4.3 pts better than Vegas for Western Michigan (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 1.6 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around WMU by 33.80%
Monmouth by 14+
2%
Monmouth by 1–13
9%
Western Michigan by 1–13
89%
Western Michigan by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Monmouth | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.071 | Offense EPA / play | −0.058 #96 |
| +0.230 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.002 #60 |
| −4.4% | Offense success rate | −2.2% #96 |
| +10.5% | Defense success rate allowed | −0.1% #55 |
| −0.012 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.029 #67 |
| −0.058 | Passing EPA / play | −0.171 #118 |
| +0.090 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.014 #69 |
| +0.340 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.003 #54 |
| −8.0 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −4.9 #98 |
| +18.0 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −5.6 #19 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.7% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −5.8% #109 |
| +10.1% | Passing-down success allowed | −1.1% #52 |
| −1.59 | Points per drive | −0.52 #92 |
| +1.91 | Points per drive allowed | −0.62 #21 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.19 | Line yards per rush | +0.13 #64 |
| +0.78 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.08 #89 |
| +1.0% | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.6% #53 |
| −8.2% | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.7% #117 |
| +1.8% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.8% #33 |
| −7.1% | Havoc created | +0.4% #46 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.041 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.010 #83 |
| +0.087 | Passing explosiveness | +0.081 #80 |
| −0.62 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.45 #125 |
| +0.275 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.031 #81 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 51% | Run rate | 70% #5 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +3.1 #27 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Monmouth | Season to date | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 2-1 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 14.0 / 49.0 | Points for / against | 23.2 / 19.4 |
| -35.0 | Avg margin | +3.8 |
| -5.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.7 |
| 63.7 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 54.6 |
Monmouth: last games
No games yet.
Western Michigan: last 1 games
| L12-13 |
